Inverclyde by-election

With just over two weeks to the Inverclyde Westminster by-elections focus is slowly turning towards this two-horse race. While by-elections are often built up as of barometers of public attitude towards parties, leaders and politics, in truth, the vast majority of them tell us nothing and do little to change the tide of power or thought. The likelihood of this by-election being any different is slim.

Yes commentators will build the contest up as a means to discover whether Labour have steadied the ship or as further evidence of a nationalist tide sweeping across Scotland.  Importantly, and what is often forgotten is Scots ‘get’ devolution. Think back to the General Election 12 months ago where Labour swept Scotland based on UK issues. Now think back 6 weeks to when the SNP swept across Scotland on a platform of Scottish issues. The issue for many is will this trend continue?

Regardless of the result, there will be a number of interesting sub-plots to navigate and understand. If Labour fail or see their majority significantly weakened how this will reflect on Ed Miliband (The Scottish Leader has already indicated he is stepping down in the autumn). The Scottish Elections were a disaster for him; the English Local Elections were not much better, the polls show him making little impact while his backbenchers continue to wonder if they have elected the wrong brother. Alternatively, if Labour maintains this seat with a significant majority, will we see a buoyed Miliband? It is also worth noting that since taking over as Leader of the Labour Party, Ed Miliband has a 3/3 strike rate on by-election victories. With the Coalition Parties remaining unpopular and on the basis of the Scottish Elections where will their voters desert too?  We’ve already seen an emboldened Alex Salmond, how will he and the party react either way?

As a reminder, the by-election will take place on Thursday 30 June, following the untimely death of the sitting Labour MP David Cairns. Dr Cairns enjoyed a majority of 14,416 following the last General Election. Compare that to his Scottish Parliament equivalent (boundaries are slightly different) Duncan McNeil who clung to his seat by only 511 votes.

The parties have already made clear that jobs and the rising cost of living will be the central pillars to their campaigns. Labour has selected the Leader of Inverclyde Council Iain McKenzie who saw off former MSP Dave Whitton to secure the nomination. The SNP have selected Anne McLaughlin the former fundraising manager and Glasgow List MSP. While the Tories have nominated Inverclyde deputy provost David Wilson and the Lib Dems the leader of their youth wing Sophie Bridger.

A Green Alternative

Last weekend the Scottish Green Party assembled in Edinburgh to enjoy their conference buoyed by their historic performance in the UK General Election. 

With the Green’s often struggling to gain widespread coverage – particularly on non-environmental issues – the conference was an opportunity to paint their vision for Scotland ahead of next year’s Holyrood election. The opportunity was certainly not missed as Robin Harper MSP, Patrick Harvie MSP and Caroline Lucas MP all lined up to criticise opponents and provide alternative solutions.

In his last conference speech before retiring from front line politics in May, Robin Harper MSP attacked the Scottish Governments world leading climate change targets, labelling them as ‘derisory’.  The Scottish Government is currently committed to reducing emissions by 42% by 2020 and 80% by 2050.  However, Mr Harper pointed out that this only equates to a fall of 0.5% this year and 0.3% in 2012.  His fear is that while the government is content to publicise the targets at every opportunity there is a growing feeling of indifference and stagnation as other political issues increasingly take precedence. 

Mr Harvie launched a scathing attack on the main Scottish Political parties over the economy.  He claimed that all the parties had accepted the ‘Westminster cuts agenda’ with little argument and were now too focused on debating where the axe should fall rather than providing an alternative.  The Green solution, according to Mr Harvie, would be to introduce a radical tax raising agenda.  Mr Harvie highlighted the party’s preference for a wealth tax, a tax on financial transactions, a crackdown on tax avoidance and the scrapping of council tax in favour of a land tax.

Caroline Lucas – the Greens first MP – continued in a similar vein claiming that Labour were stuck in the ‘New Labour nightmare’ while the Tories had utterly failed on their ‘vote blue, get green’ promises.  For these reasons (amongst others) she proclaimed that the Greens were set to make ‘significant gains’ at next year’s election as membership continues to increase and the electorate become increasingly disillusioned by the traditional mainstream parties.

Scottish Conservative Coalition U Turn?

Flicking through the papers on Sunday morning, I came across this story in the Scotland on Sunday.  The paper claims that the Scottish Conservatives are about to perform a major policy U-turn in regards to potentially forming a coalition post 6 May 2011. 

The basic idea is that heading into the 2007 elections the Tories were openly hostile to forming a coalition come what may.  Their approach this time round will be closer to ‘let’s talk’.

I doubt that the Tories were ever wholeheartedly against forming a coalition, but rather more there was no one deemed ‘acceptable’ to form one with.  To a large extent this remains true looking towards 2011 and beyond. However, David Cameron’s actions post UK General Election has, if the Scotland on Sunday is correct, forced its Scottish counterpart’s hand.  It would look rather ridiculous to be hostile towards coalition government in Scotland when your party leader has formed one to take control at Westminster. 

Replication of the ConDem Westminster coalition is out of the question based on pure electoral maths.  An agreement with Labour is nigh on impossible due to the gulf in ideological beliefs, Westminster politics and grassroots support. This leaves the SNP. The paper quotes an unnamed ‘senior tory’ as stating:

“The SNP is difficult because of the constitutional issue. But if the constitutional issue could be parked and you ask ‘are there areas of common ground?’ The answer is yes. It would be difficult but possible. It is not inconceivable”

While the Tories have worked successfully with the SNP Government over the last four years to gain concessions, most notably cuts in business rates and police numbers, is it really conceivable that the Party with ‘Unionist’ as part of its name, could work with a Party bent on breaking up that same union? Observers will point out that Labour in Wales currently form a coalition with Plaid Cymru.

Furthermore would the SNP be willing to ‘park’ their constitutional aspirations for a further four years? An option could be a similar agreement as to that currently operating between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats surrounding voting reform.  However, while this could potentially secure another term for the SNP it importantly would not secure the desired Independence Referendum. An informal alliance where the Tories agree to work with the SNP on all non-constitutional issues is another possibility.

One final thought.  It’s all well andood saying your open to forming a coalition, but someone has to agree that you’re the right bedfellow.  On the evidence of the UK General Election the Tories remain toxic, a position the SNP, Labour and the Lib Dem’s are surely keen to see maintained.  Agreeing to form a coalition with the Tories could potentially help to ‘detoxify’ the Party, especially if they showed themselves as capable.

This Week in Scotland

David Cameron once again appeared to undermine his Scottish counterparts this week after signalling his support for ‘localised’ minimum pricing of alcohol.  His comments were made in the Manchester Evening News, supporting proposals by 10 local authorities to introduce minimum pricing in the North West of England as part of an attempt to tackle alcohol related problems.

In Scotland, the SNP Scottish Government is in the process of pushing its Alcohol (Scotland) Bill through Holyrood.  While the general principles of the Bill have received widespread political support, the controversial proposal for minimum pricing has been rejected by opposition parties, including the Scottish Conservatives.  The Prime Ministers intervention comes only a week after an all-party meeting, at which opposition parties, including the Scottish Tories once again rejected the idea of minimum pricing. 

With the Scottish Tories keen to stress that Mr Cameron’s comments do not contradict their position, on the basis of the Prime Minister being sympathetic to ‘localised’ solutions rather than a national blanket ban, the Scottish Government has unsurprisingly used Cameron’s comments as support for their proposals.

In other news, figures published this week showing that 90% of newly-qualified teachers are unemployed were branded ‘disastrous’ by opposition parties.  The comments were made by the Shadow Education Secretary Des McNulty MSP, after it emerged that fewer than 300 out of 3,000 newly qualified teachers have secured employment in the council area in which they were trained.  The Scottish Government were quick to indicate that the majority of individuals had gained employment in other council areas.  This was not enough to prevent opposition party’s branding it a ‘waste of public money’ to train teachers and leave them unemployed.  A surplus of teachers is surely better than a deficit…….

Finally with the Scottish Parliamentary Elections under 9 months away, the Herald published its latest poll indicating that Labour is currently on course to regain power (see figures here).  The poll is a good example of how Scottish politics differs from the rest of the UK as the Lib Dems have maintained their pre-General Election level of support while the Scottish Tories woes remain unabated as support continues to ebb away.

The Herald: Opinion Poll

Now I realise that polls are often unreliable at predicting actual results, but the latest opinion poll published in today’s Herald provides some interesting reading.  The TNS-BMRB poll of 1,000 people, taken between July and August, provides political parties and commentators a snapshot of where the respective parties are currently perceived to be with just over 9 months till the Scottish Parliamentary Elections. 

Holyrood Constituency

Lab – 46% (+1)
SNP – 32% (+3)
LD – 11% (nc)
Con – 10% (-3)

Holyrood region

Lab – 42% (+1)
SNP – 30% (+2)
LD – 12% (nc)
Con – 11% (-1)

No information provided for the Green Party.

The figures suggest that Labour is on course to ‘win’ the Scottish Elections. However, as David Cameron’s Conservatives demonstrated, being 10 point plus ahead in the polls 9 months out means nothing.  Labour’s UK General Election success was built on the foundations of an anti-Tory vote.  If they are to repeat this success they will have to develop a distinct message above and beyond the anti-Tory message and rely on Scots continuing to associate themselves with a probable Miliband as UK Party Leader. The gap between Labour and the SNP will no doubt narrow. The question is will Labour be able to hold onto enough support to obtain a majority?

After a poor UK General Election the SNP will be heartened that their support has increased, though it is a short of the 35% mark polled in January.  With 9 months to go Alex Salmond and Co will be quietly confident that they can narrow Labour’s lead and even maintain power.

With the Lib Dem’s UK support in an apparent nose dive it is perhaps surprising to read that the Party’s support in Scotland has remained level.  It appears, through luck more than anything else, that Tavish Scott and Co have managed to so far remain untarnished from Nick Clegg’s decision to form a UK Coalition Government. The main challenge for the Scottish Lib Dems will be to maintain this support when the Westminster imposed cuts begin to bite. This will be no easy task, especially since the Prime Minister has been clever to position Danny Alexander and other leading Lib Dems as the public face of the impending cuts.

While David Cameron maybe enjoying a honeymoon period at Westminster, the Scottish Conservatives nightmare continues.  Following a dismal UK General Election, returning only 1 MP, and the respect agenda wobbling, these figures will only serve to increase the pressure on Annabel Goldie and her counterparts.  While it is probable that there are enough Tories in Scotland to prevent the Party from entering the realms of single digits, the polls suggests that they have the most work to do in persuading Scots that they offer a viable alternative. Deputy Party Leader Murdo Fraser has been quick to highlight that TNS have a history of playing down the level of Conservative support in Scotland.  The Conservatives will be hoping that TNS are once again wide of the mark.

This Week in Scotland

The SNP investigates allegations of vote rigging.

The SNP National Executive Committee (NEC) was forced to investigate a suspicious number of new members applications in the West of Scotland region in the run up to the party’s internal selection procedure for the Scottish Parliamentary Elections in 2011. Hundreds of new members joined the Party in the weeks preceding the deadline for membership applications, with only a few paying for a disproportionate number of the membership fees. The SNP has denied all accusations of rigging and has only allowed SNP members who were registered prior to June 6 to vote on the Party list in their region for the upcoming Scottish Elections. 

Talks agreed in reaction to outrage at poll clashes

Scottish Ministers have voiced their disapproval at plans to hold the AV referendum on the same day as the Scottish Elections (May 5th 2011), and the UK General Election 2015 on the same day as the Scottish Elections. Alex Salmond described the clashes as ‘outrageous’. Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg argued that holding the referendum on the same day will save £17 million. The Scottish Secretary Michael Moore has written to Mr Salmond, saying that he wanted to “engage” with the SNP administration over its concerns about the General Election date clash in 2015.

Think tank suggests Scottish Conservatives go independent

The website Conservativehome.com has suggested that the Scottish Conservatives change their name and become a functionally independent organisation from the UK Conservative Party. The website’s comments follow a review of the Scottish Conservatives, after a disastrous showing at the UK General Election.

By Sophie

Lib Dems inconsistent as potential solution to the polling clusters is proposed.

Nick Clegg has suggested that holding a referendum on an Alternative Voting System on the same day as the Scottish Parliament Elections next summer, and the 2015 General Election on the same date as the 2015 Scottish Parliament elections,  would save £17 million and is as such a wise economic move.  

However, due to pressure from Scottish ministers, the Liberal Democrat Scottish Secretary Michael Moore MP has been forced to consider giving the Scottish Parliament the power to vary its election date by six months in the forthcoming Scotland Bill. This proposal seems adhoc and inconsistent. If saving money is the aim of clustering the elections then why spread them out again at the inconvenience of Britain’s devolved institutions? Moore’s proposal clearly undermines Clegg’s sound reasoning that grouping the elections could be an economically savvy move.

On a more basic level the proposed solution to the poll problem demonstrates an arrogant assumption that Holyrood should bend to Westminster’s every whim and, in this case, mistake. If the coalition government genuinely respected the devolved governments’  concerns over the election dates, then they would have moved the UK poll dates and not bullied the devolved institutions into changing theirs. It seems patent that David Cameron will need to do more than the proposed ‘top-level talks’ if he is to restore faith in the coalition government’s ‘Respect Agenda’. A meeting between the Scottish Secretary and the First Minister must surely be on the cards? 

By Sophie

Review recommends Scottish conservatives change their name and go it alone to rid themselves of the ‘toxic’ brand.

Having only secured one seat in the UK General Election the Scottish Conservative party has been subject to review ahead of the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections. A grassroots Conservative website (Conservativehome.com) has recommended that the party becomes independent from their Southern counterparts and also suggested that the party change its name. Suggested new names include the party’s original title up until 1965 the Scottish Unionist Party, in addition to other less fitting titles such as the Scottish Freedom Party and the Scottish Reform Party. The website’s recommendations were part of a larger scale attempt to revamp the Scottish Conservatives.

The website’s comments come as the minutes of a meeting held by the Chiefs of the Scottish Conservative party revealed Murdo Fraser, the party’s deputy leader at Holyrood, as having described the Conservative brand as ‘toxic’, and that any efforts to cajole voters in the run up to the election had clearly been ineffective. Additionally, it has been reported that Lord Forsyth, the former Scottish Secretary and member of the review team, has described the Scottish Conservatives as ‘a bit marginal’.

The body conducting the post-election review, headed by Lord Sanderson who served as a Minister under Margaret Thatcher and has been described by the Scotsman as a ‘Tory grandee’, ‘has strong links to the upper echelons of the UK party’ and is headed by Lord Sanderson. However, it has been suggested by a leading ally of David Cameron that the Scottish Conservatives need to persuade the Scottish electorate that they are not ‘two-headed monstrous Thatcherites’. The website suggested that the move towards independence could only benefit Mr Cameron, who would ‘no longer be tarnished’ by the ‘underperformance’ of the Scottish Conservatives.

It seems unlikely that the proposed rebranding of the Scottish Conservatives will be sufficient to change voters’ perceptions of the party in time for the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections. In addition, this superficial re-branding is unlikely to resolve the existing internal strife and divisions within the party.

By Sophie

Last Week in Scotland

Former Stirling MP, Lord Forsyth, has been added to the commission investigating Conservative failures in Scotland – prompting critics to complain further that the commission will fail to deliver the radical change needed. David Mundell, Scotland’s only Tory MP has told critics of the review committee to “put up or shut up”. In the aftermath of disappointing results in the General Election and with the next Scottish Parliament elections looming on the horizon, it remains to be seen whether the commission can provide a genuine boost to the Tory performance north of the border.

Against a backdrop of cuts announced down South by Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, which have serious implications for Scotland’s quangos, health boards and police forces in particular, FMQ’s covered some well worn themes. Iain Gray attacked the First Minister over the difficulties in introducing the Curriculum for Excellence reforms. Annabel Goldie raised the issue of Salduz v Turkey, the human rights case concerning the right of a person who is detained by the police to get legal advice. An interesting choice, because although undeniably worthy, is not the type of populist issue that will resonate with ordinary voters. Tavish Scott led on this issue of quango spending, particularly focusing on the £400k spent on corporate branded gifts, by Scottish Enterprise and Scottish Development International.

However, the story that really seized the imagination amongst the political intelligentsia was the rather colourful remarks made by the Chair of the Public Petitions committee Frank McAveety MSP. Comments include: “There’s a very attractive girl in the second row. Dark and dusky.. she’s got that Filipino look you know.” McAveety was forced to apologise after he was caught on microphone making inappropriate and suggestive comments about a member of the public observing the committee. However, after it emerged that the girl in question was a Parliamentary intern of school age, he was forced resign to both as committee chair and as Scottish Labour spokesperson for sport.

By Kenny

Scottish Elections 2011: An Opening Poll

With Scottish politicians now turning their attention to next years Scottish Elections, the findings of the first poll of Scottish voting intentions post-General Election makes for interesting reading.

The figures:

Constituency Voting Intentions

Lab – 45% (+8)

SNP – 29% (-6)

Con – 13%

LDem – 11%

Regional Voting Intentions

Lab – 41% (+4)

SNP – 28% (-2)

Con – 13%

LDem – 12%

TNS-BMRB poll was carried out between 26 May and 1 June, canvassing the opinion of 1012 adults across 70 Scottish constituencies.

The above figures will be encouraging for Labour and concerning for the SNP ahead of the 2011 elections. It suggests that the SNP will face a difficult time in its attempt to secure a second term with popularist policies such as smaller class sizes, teacher unemployment and GARL being put on hold or rejected as the economic climate dictates.  Worryingly for the SNP is the fact that the apparent success of the Coalition Government has meant that the SNP has not found itself enjoying any increased leverage at Westminster nor has a Conservative led UK Government led to a surge in support.  The General Election slogan of ‘More Nats, less cuts’ flopped. If the SNP are to retain power, it needs to find a message that resonates.

Labour will be buoyant.  If repeated – a big if with just under a year to go – Labour would be the largest party at Holyrood.  Although Labour have run a rather negative campaign over the last year or so, it suggest their message is resonating with Scots, who according to these figures at least, believe that Labour are currently best positioned to defend Scottish interests and tackle the economic climate. Importantly, these figures suggest the continuation of a trend towards the party in Scotland that was demonstrated so clearly by the General Election result.

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats find themselves in an all too familiar situation.  Despite moderate success at a UK level once again the parties are struggling to convert their popularity south of the border into votes north of it.  The Conservatives have announced a comprehensive review of the Party in Scotland is to be undertaken to try and address this issue.

The Lib Dems support remains dispersed making it difficult for them to secure a large number of constituency seats. Importantly for the Lib Dems though, there appears to have been no mass desertion from the party as a reaction to forming a coalition with the Tories.  Worryingly though for both parties is that there appears to be no ‘bounce’ in the polls, despite various opinion polls suggesting that the overwhelming majority of the UK population are in favour of the new Coalition and its ‘new politics’.

In 2005 the landscape of Scottish politics was altered dramatically with the SNPs victory.  What this poll suggests, and it is just one poll, is that this was not a fundamental shift.  The Scottish political landscape and indeed the election will be dominated by the impending cuts, which George Osborne and Co will outline in the Budget and Autumn Spending Review.  How the parties react to these announcements may hold the key to success in 2011.