This Week in Scotland

This week was one of ceremony, appointments and resignations

First off, all 129 MSPs were sworn in this week ahead of the first session of the fourth Scottish Parliament. Once sworn in the MSPs settled down to elect a new Presiding Officer. With three nominations – Christine Grahame, Tricia Marwick and Hugh Henry – the SNP dominated parliament elected the first ever female PO in Tricia Marwick.  Her election caused opposition parties to raise concerns over whether Marwick can be even-handed and ensure proper scrutiny in the fourth session. In an emotional acceptance speech, the experienced MSP for Mid-Fife & Glenrothes, sought to quash these fears and proclaimed the parliament has work to do. Her deputies were later announced as Tory stalwart John Scott and Labour’s Elaine Smith.

As the latest poll on independence suggests that English voters support Scottish independence more than their Scottish counterparts, Nick Clegg and David Cameron vowed to present an “uplifting and optimistic” case for the Union. Nick Clegg, also ruled out the possibility of a UK wide referendum on Scottish Independence after a number of English MPs demanded a say due to the potential consequences for the rest of the UK.

Scottish Secretary Michael Moore, met with Alex Salmond last night where the latter demanded further powers be devolved or risk going against the will of the Scottish people. The First Minister wants the Scotland Bill, currently passing through Westminster, to be amended to grant Holyrood borrowing powers, control over corporation tax and the Crown Estate. In talks that were described as “constructive” it seems Westminster are more keen on the idea of extending the parliaments borrowing powers rather than devolving tax. Another amendment, proposed by the former Scottish Secretary Lord Forsyth this week, which is unlikely to see the light of day is that the Scotland Bill should include an early referendum on Independence to settle the question once and for all. The idea being an early referendum is likely to be defeated and also prevents the SNP from preparing favourable ground.

Alex Salmond achieved a full house over the weekend when Annabel Goldie announced that she will step down as leader of the Scottish Conservatives come the autumn. Her announcement follows on from Iain Gray’s announcement that he will be stepping down after an internal party review and the immediate resignation of Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Tavish Scott.

Finally, Willie Rennie, new regional MSP for Mid Scotland & Fife has thrown his name into the hat to replace Tavish Scott as Scottish Lib Dem leader promising to stand up against the “bulldozer SNP Government for Liberal Values”.

Tavish Scott Resigns

Tavish Scott’s resignation was all but inevitable. Not only was it a reflection of the crushing defeat the Lib Dems had had at the polls, but also an acknowledgement that he had failed to galvanise Lib Dem support in Scotland. Many in the Party feel that Tavish was handed an impossible task and should not have to fall on his sword, but if he had not done so, there would have been a real danger that the Party would have entirely placed the blame on Clegg. The truth is that the Party itself needs to look harder at how it connects with voters, particularly when it is in Government. Newly elected MSP, Willie Rennie, is already being touted as a natural successor. He, at least, has the ability to connect with local campaigners in a way that Tavish was unable to do. However, he is new to the Scottish Parliament and his fellow colleagues, McInnes, McArthur and Hume may equally believe they have the right skills to lead the Party. Whoever takes on the mantle, they’ve a mountain to climb to rebuild the Party’s reputation.

By Ross

Scottish Election: Some Final Thoughts

Majorities are supposed to be impossible in the Scottish Parliament. We now know that they are not. They are merely improbable. In a quite astonishing result for the Scottish National Party, a hold in Clackmannanshire & Dunblane, meant they attained 65 seats and gained a majority in the Scottish Parliament. The results as they stand show that the SNP has achieved 69 seats, Scottish Labour with 37 seats, the Scottish Conservatives with 15 the Scottish Liberal Democrats with 5, the Scottish Greens with 2 seats, and finally another term for Independent Margo MacDonald.

After the joy and euphoria wears off for the Scottish National Party, they will begin to truly digest the challenge that awaits them. The party has gained the majority needed to push through an independence referendum, but will know it faces a huge battle to win this contest. They have a manifesto with numerous costly pledges that will have to be delivered without the limitations of minority government to use as an explanation for any failures. Nevertheless, they have pulled off a remarkable electoral turn around and executed one of the great campaigns, in not just Scottish, but British political history.

On the other hand, Scottish Labour supporters will be experiencing a mixture of shock, confusion and despair today. The core vote of the party actually held up fairly well. Yet they looked on powerlessly as they watched the sands of Scottish politics shift beneath their feet. The SNP were the main beneficiaries of the collapse of the Lib Dem vote and they have launched astonishing raids into Labour territory like Glasgow and Lanarkshire. In the process, big names like Tom McCabe, Andy Kerr and David Whitton all lost their seats. Scottish Labour will now have to turn to a parliamentary party made up of neophytes to re-build the party of Cook, Smith and Dewar. Scottish Labour are going to choose a new leader in the autumn and in doing so will have to ask the introspective and self-flagellating question: “Where do we go from here?”

Yet if the electoral results put Scottish Labour into intensive care, they have put the Scottish Liberal Democrats onto life support. The party are now only a Viking invasion away from having no constituency MSPs. Only Tavish Scott in Shetland and Liam McArthur in Orkney held onto their seats and so the party have no representatives in Scotland. The Westminster Coalition has exacted a heavy cost North of the Border. 

The Scottish Conservatives had an electoral strategy where they characterised themselves as acting as a block to the excesses of nationalism. However, with the SNP possessing a majority of MSPs the Scottish Conservatives will no longer be able to play the part of canny budget negotiators. Carving out and identifying a role for themselves is going to be a huge challenge in the new Parliament. It may be that they will be forced to form an unholy front with Scottish Labour as defenders of the union. An arrangement neither party will relish.

The Scottish Greens will share in the disappointment. They have ended up with only two MSPs for another Parliament, a very disappointing result after certain polls thought they might take as many as eight MSPs. The Scottish Parliament is undoubtedly going to take on a new identity, with a majority of SNP MSPs and many new faces across the chamber.

This is not a result that can truly be absorbed or analysed in hours or even days. It will take weeks to digest the full implications for Scottish politics. As much as this was at times a dull campaign, it came to a thrilling and unforgettable climax. Indeed, all those who sat up through the night and into the new day, will at least understand that many of the sacrosanct maxims of Scottish politics have been undermined forever. Indeed, the Scottish voters have sent a clear message that they consider the “quiet dogmas of the past inadequate for the stormy present.”

Scottish Election: Lunchtime Musings

Although it rained heavily on polling day in Scotland, no one expected the SNP landslide that has left Alex Salmond on the brink of forming a majority government. This would be the first time there has ever been a majority government in Scotland.

It was clear as soon as the first results came in that this was going to be a horrific night for Scottish Labour and its leader Iain Gray. The first scalps taken by the SNP included Andy Kerr, Gray’s number two and other senior Labour figures including Tom McCabe. In the early hours of the morning, as Labour figures watched in horror from the BBC’s election studio, Glasgow seats also began to fall. The loss of Glasgow Anniesland and Glasgow Shettleston early on were especially bad portents. Nicola Sturgeon, SNP Deputy First Minister, also held Glasgow Southside which represented an impressive turnaround compared to just six weeks ago,

Strangely, the Labour share of the vote has held up well. The major dynamic at work in this election has rather been the transfer of Lib Dem votes to the SNP. Labour attempted to use this to rationalise the loss but this somewhat begs the question as to why they failed to capture these switching voters.

These results border on an unmitigated disaster for the Scottish Liberal Democrats. Both Tavish Scott and Liam McArthur both saw their majorities significantly cut by Independents in Shetland and Orkney and, at the time of writing, they have only returned one MSP on the Scottish mainland.

Meanwhile the Scottish Conservative Party can only hope that it has steadied its ship and maintained its vote. The party has largely flat-lined in the polls and failed to make any significant gains, although Annabelle Goldie’s no nonsense approach throughout the election, certainly gained the party some credibility.

Finally, the Scottish Green Party saw some success. The party was able to gain a small number of regional list seats, returning Co-Convener Patrick Harvie. They will have a more prominent role in the future Scottish Parliament.

This election was all about Alex Salmond. The SNP fielded a more experienced team and although they have clearly benefited from the unpopularity of the Lib Dems, it now has a mandate in place that strengthens its case against Westminster cuts and for a referendum on independence.  Scottish Labour has lost many key figures and will be left with a largely inexperienced team to try and reclaim what was once their electoral stronghold.

 By Kenny

This Week in Scotland

 

Over the holiday weekend, Scottish Labour conducted a campaign ‘re-launch’ in an effort to regain the initiative as we head into the final week of campaigning. Scottish Labour has so far trained their guns on the UK coalition Government, with particular emphasis placed on it being Conservative led. However, this re-launch has seen Scottish issues take centre stage, with particular emphasis directed towards the constitutional implications of re-electing the SNP. Labour figures, including Ed Miliband and Ed Balls, have stressed this week that a re-elected SNP administration would prioritise an independence referendum rather than focusing on important issues such as job creation and economic growth. With opinion polls continuing to show minimal support for independence, Iain Gray hopes that by drawing attention to the potential economic implications of such a ‘divorce’, it will help stem the party’s current downward trend in the polls and convince the electorate that policy is more important than personality.

Talking of polls the holiday period also saw the latest YouGov Poll commissioned by the Scotland on Sunday (24/04/11) published. Topline figures suggested that the SNP have a 13 point lead over Labour in the Constituency vote and a 10 point lead in the Regional list. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats continue to hover around the 12% and 8% respectively. It is worth noting the fact that the Greens are polling at 7%, making them potential king makers. If the above materialised then the SNP would win 61 seats (+14), Labour 41 (-5), Conservatives 13 (-4), Lib Dems 6 (-10) and the Greens 8 (+6).

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Tavish Scott followed in the footsteps of Vince Cable by launching an extraordinary and savage attack on the Tories in an interview in Wednesday’s Scotsman. Mr Scott claims that Nick Clegg has spared Scotland the ‘worst excess of Thatcherism’ by tempering the Tories who would have ‘burned Scotland at the stake’ if they had ruled alone. His comments come as the Scottish Lib Dems continue to try and distance themselves from the Tories and as the party continues to languish in the polls.

This week has also seen a plethora of mini-manifesto launches. Scottish Labour launched their Disabilities and Older People’s manifestos, while the SNPs published a manifesto on jobs. Not to be outdone, the Tories launched one on Sports, the Lib Dems a Rural Affairs one, while the Greens published two, one focusing on the rural economy and another on energy.

One of the more bizarre stories of the election so far occurred last night when Iain Gray accused Alex Salmond of ‘hiding’ from him after the two leaders found themselves in the same ASDA store. Unsurprisingly, the SNP has branded this claim as ‘desperate’ and that the situation unfolded very differently with Iain Gray having ‘turned tail’ rather than face the First Minister. The Tories, this afternoon added their two pence by branding the two parties as ‘infantile’.

Scottish Liberal Democrat: Manifesto

As the manifesto launch merry-go-round continues, today was the turn of the Scottish Liberal Democrats. Being hammered in the polls and with a leader who the public confuse with Fred Goodwin, the manifesto offers the Party an opportunity to control the media cycle and focus attention on its policies and proposals.

‘Solutions for Scotland’ is aimed at implementing long-term solutions not short-term fixes. Tavish Scott in his forward insists the manifesto is about getting on with the hand the Parliament has been dealt and not dealing with what ifs. The Lib Dems believe that through creating the right conditions jobs will be created, excellence in Scotland’s schools will be restored and vital local services will be protected and improved.

At the core of their approach are three immediate priorities: Growing Scotland’s economy and creating jobs; Excellence in Education; and making services strong and local.

Headline commitments:

-          Deliver 100,000 new jobs and 40,000 new green jobs

-          Cut regulations by a quarter to enable businesses to grow

-          Scrap Council tax for the poorest pensioners

-          Establish Regional Development Banks to replace the Enterprise Network

-          Create an environment and skills base to deliver 50% growth in Scotland’s trade network

-          Introduce a Science Nation Action Plan

-          Offer free world leading higher education

-          Bolster colleges and improve links to businesses and apprenticeships

-          Cut Business rates in new Scottish Enterprise Zones

-          Stimulate the economy by making Scotland the most digitally connected country in Europe

Other commitments include £250m programme to tackle climate change through insulation and extra energy efficiency programmes; providing new support to renewable companies including a commitment to generate 100% of Scotland’s electricity needs using renewables by 2025. On education the Party lists measures to ensure no child is left behind, while healthcare is to be kept local and focused on preventative measures. Justice sees a commitment to end automatic early release and support for intervention schemes to cut knife crime, while infrastructure projects are to be focused and delivered on time and to budget.

The 375 commitments listed in the manifesto are recognition by the Lib Dems that they will not be the largest party or indeed the largest partner in any coalition. What we have here is a list of very specific negotiable demands and proposals that other parties will have to be willing to accept if they are to gain Lib Dem support.

It is now up to the Scottish electorate to digest these commitments and decide if what is being proposed here are indeed solutions for Scotland.

STV Leaders Debate: Review

Last night the four candidates to be the next First Minister answered questions from a studio audience at Glasgow’s Piping Centre, being broadcast by STV. Bernard Ponsonby was an assured and accomplished chair, even if he was let down by a set that resembled an early prototype for the Krypton Factor. Also, the format seemed to allow slightly confused and aggressive audience participation. The candidates were also not given the chance to give either opening or closing statements. It will be interesting to see if the next BBC debate differs from this at all.

Key issues

Council Tax – There was a discussion on the the Council Tax freeze and whether the freeze had actually been fully funded by the Scottish Government. Alternatives such as a Local Income Tax were also discussed.

Student education – We heard a lot about Scottish Solutions, tuition fees in London and the importance of free education. Plenty of mud was slung, but nobody gave a coherent plan for future funding, because none of the parties really have one.

Skills and employment – Iain Gray talked about these issues whenever he could. There was a broad endorsement of the importance of these issues by all these parties. Both Salmond and Gray highlighted their commitment to fund apprenticeships.

Megrahi – There was genuine discontent from the audience around the issue and it could prove to be an X Factor in these elections in the way the Iraq War was in 2007.

 

Candidate performances

Alex Salmond (SNP)

Polished and statesman like throughout. Almost universally accepted as the slickest presenter before the debate started, he did nothing to undermine this analysis. He gave a positive and compelling endorsement of his ministerial team as he rebuffed Iain Gray’s ‘one man band’ line. Displayed a good understanding of the issues around higher education funding and was managed to achieve one of the few moments in the debate where the rhetoric managed to gain some altitude. He handled the Megrahi issue fairly well, but if last night’s studio audience is an accurate barometer, there is still genuine anger amongst the voters regarding the release.

Iain Gray (Lab)

A solid start to the debate. He was aggressive in his attacks regarding the SNP’s failure to clear student debt. He also pivoted to Scottish Labour’s priority issues of jobs and growth in the early part of the debate. However, his stature seemed to diminish after the questioning about who would be the best First Minister. His ‘one man band line’ about the Alex Salmond’s leadership of the SNP never really seemed to find traction either. He was out performed by Salmond, but still managed to exceed the expectations of some skeptics before the debate.

Annabel Goldie (Con)

If nothing else Goldie is usually a politician with a refreshing distaste for obfuscation, however last night, there were a number of points where she did not answer questions in her usual direct manner. Also, she possibly found herself allying with the SNP too closely when promoting Scottish Conservative work in budgets. Her position on higher education may be unpopular, but her position was clearly elucidated and consistent last evening. In fairness, it was an admirably assured performance given the start the Scottish Conservatives have had to their campaign.

Tavish Scott (LD)

It was always going to be a difficult night for the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, and well it was. He said he wanted to replace the Council Tax with an alternative local tax but was unclear in explaining his alternative policy and why it would be preferable. Got into a bit of a spat about the value of the Amazon plant in Fife with Alex Salmond and was clearly on the losing side of the exchange. The increasing toxicity of the Lib Dem brand is a real problem for Scott, but he must do better next time.

Conclusion

The debate went much according to plan. Salmond reinforced his reputation as the most polished performer of the party leaders without quite blowing any of the candidates away. This was the opening salvo of what is going to be a drawn out and protracted campaign. Risk averse and cautious, we will have to wait until the later debates to see any fireworks.

By Kenny

This Week in Scotland

This week in Scotland sees the Spring Party Conference season kick off with the Liberal Democrats hosting their two day conference in Perth. Scottish Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott pledges to boost their number of MSPs in the forthcoming election, despite currently lagging in the polls both in Scotland and nationally, against the backdrop of the blow from the Barnsley by-election result. Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg is due to address the gathering also, and Tavish Scott hopes to lay out the Scottish Lib Dems economic and job creation plans ahead the Holyrood election while countering claims the Westminster coalition will severely damage their prospects. Only time will tell.

Meanwhile, the Boundary Review Commission for Scotland has launched its constituency review, which will see the number of Westminster constituencies in Scotland drop from 59 to 52 for the next general election.  The average electorate per constituency in the UK has been set at 76,641, and each constituency must be within 5% of that quota, but some exceptions have been made for large geographical areas that are sparsely populated notable affecting the Islands off Scotland.  Scottish Labour have spoken against the moves, claiming that Lib Dem seats are being protected while large Scottish cities such as Edinburgh and Glasgow were being reduced.  The SNP have warned that the reforms are being rushed through and would lead to huge rural constituencies.

In the Scottish Parliament, MSPs are calling for stronger powers than the proposals currently being discussed by the UK Government. The Scotland Bill Committee in Holyrood,  has proposed much stronger borrowing powers, being allowed to raise £5 billion which is double the amount proposed by Westminster, or to be able to issue bonds to pay for major infrastructure projects such as the new Forth road bridge or large capital projects. The report also said Scottish ministers should have ‘complete discretion’ over what money is spent on without having to seek agreement from the Treasury. Committee Convenor, Scottish Labour’s Wendy Alexander MSP was proud to have produced recommendations she termed ‘Calman plus’. While Scottish Secretary Michael Moore welcomed the report as a significant step forward in bringing new financial powers and accountability, the SNP, predictably, rejected the recommendations as not going far enough calling for full tax powers  stating that the powers would fail to deliver jobs or properly increase Holyrood’s accountability.

Stay tuned as the recommendations are due to be debated in the Scottish Parliament next Thursday, before progressing back down to Westminster.

By Ken

Scottish Government Legislative Agenda 2010/11

Alex Salmond came to the Scottish Parliament’s chamber to deliver the SNP’s fourth programme for legislation since coming to power in 2007 in a typically bombastic fervour ahead of the new parliamentary session. Iain Gray was quick to quip in his response that this would be his last. Tough words but the Labour leader was equally up for an argument this afternoon as he clearly see residence at Bute House within his grasp.

The 2010/11 Legislative Agenda was delivered in the context of impending public sector cuts, potential new powers (and lack of an Independence Referendum) for Scotland and next year’s election. Annabel Goldie and Tavish Scott declared that while there was merit in each bill, it did not represent much of a vision for the SNP’s last months in power.

Despite this session being slightly shorter due to the election there will be 10 bills, including the Alcohol (Scotland) Bill from the last session.

The BUDGET BILL will be at heart of the overall legislative programme. The First Minister has promised to publish the draft Budget Bill within four weeks of the publication of the UK Government’s Comprehensive Spending Review. Despite calls to publish the draft bill sooner, Salmond argued that logic should determine that the Government “sees the books” before making final spending decisions. At the heart of the Budget will be decisions to “best protect frontline services” within the context of a falling budget. Within this the First Minister again promised to reduce class sizes, implement Curriculum for Excellence and fund major infrastructure projects.

There will be two bills to modernise Scotland’s housing sector. The LONG LEASES BILL will convert long lease properties into ownership and the PRIVATE TENANT HOUSING BILL will aim to tackle rouge landlords.

In terms of delivering a fairer Scotland, the Government will also introduce a NEW PUBLIC RECORDS BILL to improve accountability, strength and governance and introduce measures to uncover the historic abuse of children. The Government will also introduce a child poverty strategy in this parliamentary term. A DOUBLE JEOPARDY BILL will also be introduced, importantly opening up the possibility of a new trial into the World’s End murders. A FORCED MARRIAGE PROTECTION BILL will also be introduced, as well as a RESEVOIR SAFETY BILL to increase Scotland’s flood protection.

Salmond was also quick to defend the SNP’s record on health protection, referring to the ALCOHOL BILL and the recent decision to set a minimum price of 45p per unit. In order to streamline procedures regarding death certification a HEALTH, CERTIFICATION and DEATH BILL will be introduced. This rounds up the Government’s health agenda for this term.

The future of Scottish Water will also be debated this year. Plans will be spelt out in a SCOTTISH WATER BILL to give the organisation more powers to better manage Scotland’s water supply. Salmond was very clear that the Government intends to keep Scottish Water in public hands. In order to make Scotland Greener Salmond has promised to ensure that Scotland benefits from its expansion into renewables by ensuring that a national fund is established to ensure that Scottish communities benefit from its national resources, similar to the oil fund but in Scottish hands.

Lastly, Salmond paid tribute to  Jimmy Reid who once said: “Government by the people for the people becomes meaningless unless it includes major economic decision-making by the people for the people”. Salmond criticized the unionist parties for not allowing Scotland to decide on independence in a referendum to jeers from the opposition benches. In order to achieve this, the First Minister said that the first stage of devolution is over and Scotland now needs control of both sides of its balance sheet so that “we can set our own agenda”, independent of Westminster.

By Matt

Independence Front and Centre

After being put on the backburner following the economic recession, Alex Salmond has announced that Independence will once again be central to the SNPs 2011 Scottish Election campaign.  Paraphrasing an interview with the Sunday Express, the First Minister wants to “let the people decide” through the ballot box if there is any appetite for independence.  While appealing to his core vote, such a strategy is fraught with danger and potential embarrassment. 

With Salmond placing independence at the heart of his campaign, he is conceding that the much delayed Referendum Bill is unlikely to pass.  This is the most likely outcome following Tavish Scott decision to rule out any support from the Liberal Democrats.  As such Salmond is placing a vote for the SNP as a vote for independence.  If we follow this logic on, a vote for Labour, or in fact any other unionist party is therefore a vote for remaining in the Union.  Hypothetically then, if the SNP were to be defeated, as recent polls suggest, opposition parties would be able to say that there is no appetite for independence  pointing at the election result as hard evidence.

The pitch is unsurprising given the current economic and political climate.  No party wanting to be taken seriously by the electorate can offer freebee popularist policies that have dominated previous Scottish Elections (free prescriptions, abolishing bridge tolls etc.).  The election will be fought on the grounds of what each political party will protect. Being in Government and having a Budget to announce before the election, has the disadvantage of having to announce where the axe will fall.  A non-cuts focused policy is therefore a welcome distraction, so long as you can get the electorate to listen.