This Week in Scotland

This week marked 100 days since the SNPs momentous victory in May’s Scottish Elections. During these 100 days, the Scottish Government has outlined ambitious plans to increase the powers of the Scottish Parliament, including devolving responsibility for corporation tax, the Crown Estate and increasing borrowing powers. However it has also become embroiled in a series of high-profile rows most notably with the Scottish Legal establishment.

In 2007 Salmond burst out of the blocks with announcement after popularist announcement. This time round Salmond has sought to focus on pressurising Westminster to devolve more powers to Holyrood. His desire for further borrowing powers has seen movement, though those concerning Corporation Tax have gone nowhere.  Hampered by the summer recess, the Governments legislative programme is not expected until September, while its attempts to fast-track the Offensive Behaviour at Football & Threatening Communication (Scotland) Bill came unstuck amidst claims the timescale did not allow for adequate consideration.

Meanwhile, Scottish Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill was again defending his decision to release the Lockerbie bomber, Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi, 2 years after his release.  MacAskill was left further red-faced when he admitted that officials are not 100% sure of Al-Megrahi’s whereabouts.  Efforts have been made to contact Libyan rebel leaders to help track down the Lockerbie bomber but the “dust of the battle” will have to settle before the picture is clear.

The Scottish Labour Leadership contest received the welcome injection of a candidate. Tom Harris MP announced that he would be willing to lead the Scottish Party as long as Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander remained uninterested. Harris’s announcement has received a mixed reaction so far with some arguing that with the supposed dearth of talent in Holyrood a Westminster heavy(ish) hitter is required to take on Salmond, while others believe the Scottish Party has enough talent to select from within. The so-called ‘big fish’ that survived the election drubbing have been anything but enthusiastic in throwing their names into the hat. Johann Lamont has declared, Hugh Henry has declined, while Jackie Baillie has remained on the fence. The new leader will be chosen in late November following the results of the internal review into the future of the Scottish Party.

This Week in Scotland

Recess is in full swing.

The financial gulf between the SNP and Scottish Labour has been reaffirmed this week as figures indicate that the SNP spent £2.1million in 2010 compared with Labour’s £600,000. Although much of Scottish Labour’s income and expenditure is accounted for at a UK level, the figures show the widening gulf that exists between Scotland’s two main parties. This extra financial clout enabled the SNP to pour thousands of extra pounds into their ultimately successful re-election campaign.

The Scottish Affairs Select Committee at Westminster reported that the UK Governments policy towards immigration will have a “disproportionate effect” on Scottish Universities. The UK Government is committed to reducing immigration to 10’s of thousands per annum. Restricting visa applications for foreign students is seen as one of the easiest ways of achieving this ambition. The Committees report went on to say that Scottish circumstances had not been adequately factored in and that high quality foreign students will be put off applying to study in Scotland.

Finally, the Scottish Government has announced more than £4 million funding to improve the countries local sports facilities ahead of the Commonwealth Games.

Malcolm Chisholm leaves Labour’s shadow cabinet

Scottish Labour’s attempts to steady the ship following their disastrous Scottish Elections were dealt a blow this afternoon with Malcolm Chisholm MSP resigning from Iain Gray’s shadow cabinet. Appointed only two weeks ago to the shadow education portfolio, Mr Chisholm has decided to return to the backbenches. While Labour are keen to stress Chisholm simply “reconsidered” his position, opposition parties have jumped on the opportunity to portray Labour as being in a state of “chaos”.

Mr Chisholm has twice before resigned from ministerial roles and was the only Labour MSP to break ranks in the last session over the controversial issues of minimum pricing and releasing the Lockerbie Bomber on compassionate grounds.

Ken Macintosh has taken over the shadow education portfolio with Patricia Ferguson being promoted to the shadow culture role.

Annabel Goldie Resigns

Annabel Goldie has announced she is to step down as Leader of the Scottish Conservatives. She will continue in a caretaker role until her successor is announced in the Autumn. There was speculation that she might remain as Leader, having fought an effective campaign in the Scottish elections. However, she suggested a vote for the Scottish Conservatives would be a vote for a group capable of getting concessions from the SNP and holding them to account. The SNP majority leaves this Scottish Conservative tactic a dead duck. Beyond this, there has been a growing sense of the need for change in the Party if it is to move on. Murdo Fraser MSP is almost certainly the front-runner, but it remains to be seen whether he can hold the Conservative Group together and give them a new, more modern identity.

It marks an incredible result for Alex Salmond and the SNP. It means not one, not two, but all three opposition leaders have fallen on their swords after the SNP victory. Not only will Salmond enjoy a majority at the start of the Parliamentary session but will soon come to face a trio of new party leaders.

Tavish Scott Resigns

Tavish Scott’s resignation was all but inevitable. Not only was it a reflection of the crushing defeat the Lib Dems had had at the polls, but also an acknowledgement that he had failed to galvanise Lib Dem support in Scotland. Many in the Party feel that Tavish was handed an impossible task and should not have to fall on his sword, but if he had not done so, there would have been a real danger that the Party would have entirely placed the blame on Clegg. The truth is that the Party itself needs to look harder at how it connects with voters, particularly when it is in Government. Newly elected MSP, Willie Rennie, is already being touted as a natural successor. He, at least, has the ability to connect with local campaigners in a way that Tavish was unable to do. However, he is new to the Scottish Parliament and his fellow colleagues, McInnes, McArthur and Hume may equally believe they have the right skills to lead the Party. Whoever takes on the mantle, they’ve a mountain to climb to rebuild the Party’s reputation.

By Ross

Scottish Election: Some Final Thoughts

Majorities are supposed to be impossible in the Scottish Parliament. We now know that they are not. They are merely improbable. In a quite astonishing result for the Scottish National Party, a hold in Clackmannanshire & Dunblane, meant they attained 65 seats and gained a majority in the Scottish Parliament. The results as they stand show that the SNP has achieved 69 seats, Scottish Labour with 37 seats, the Scottish Conservatives with 15 the Scottish Liberal Democrats with 5, the Scottish Greens with 2 seats, and finally another term for Independent Margo MacDonald.

After the joy and euphoria wears off for the Scottish National Party, they will begin to truly digest the challenge that awaits them. The party has gained the majority needed to push through an independence referendum, but will know it faces a huge battle to win this contest. They have a manifesto with numerous costly pledges that will have to be delivered without the limitations of minority government to use as an explanation for any failures. Nevertheless, they have pulled off a remarkable electoral turn around and executed one of the great campaigns, in not just Scottish, but British political history.

On the other hand, Scottish Labour supporters will be experiencing a mixture of shock, confusion and despair today. The core vote of the party actually held up fairly well. Yet they looked on powerlessly as they watched the sands of Scottish politics shift beneath their feet. The SNP were the main beneficiaries of the collapse of the Lib Dem vote and they have launched astonishing raids into Labour territory like Glasgow and Lanarkshire. In the process, big names like Tom McCabe, Andy Kerr and David Whitton all lost their seats. Scottish Labour will now have to turn to a parliamentary party made up of neophytes to re-build the party of Cook, Smith and Dewar. Scottish Labour are going to choose a new leader in the autumn and in doing so will have to ask the introspective and self-flagellating question: “Where do we go from here?”

Yet if the electoral results put Scottish Labour into intensive care, they have put the Scottish Liberal Democrats onto life support. The party are now only a Viking invasion away from having no constituency MSPs. Only Tavish Scott in Shetland and Liam McArthur in Orkney held onto their seats and so the party have no representatives in Scotland. The Westminster Coalition has exacted a heavy cost North of the Border. 

The Scottish Conservatives had an electoral strategy where they characterised themselves as acting as a block to the excesses of nationalism. However, with the SNP possessing a majority of MSPs the Scottish Conservatives will no longer be able to play the part of canny budget negotiators. Carving out and identifying a role for themselves is going to be a huge challenge in the new Parliament. It may be that they will be forced to form an unholy front with Scottish Labour as defenders of the union. An arrangement neither party will relish.

The Scottish Greens will share in the disappointment. They have ended up with only two MSPs for another Parliament, a very disappointing result after certain polls thought they might take as many as eight MSPs. The Scottish Parliament is undoubtedly going to take on a new identity, with a majority of SNP MSPs and many new faces across the chamber.

This is not a result that can truly be absorbed or analysed in hours or even days. It will take weeks to digest the full implications for Scottish politics. As much as this was at times a dull campaign, it came to a thrilling and unforgettable climax. Indeed, all those who sat up through the night and into the new day, will at least understand that many of the sacrosanct maxims of Scottish politics have been undermined forever. Indeed, the Scottish voters have sent a clear message that they consider the “quiet dogmas of the past inadequate for the stormy present.”

Scottish Election: Lunchtime Musings

Although it rained heavily on polling day in Scotland, no one expected the SNP landslide that has left Alex Salmond on the brink of forming a majority government. This would be the first time there has ever been a majority government in Scotland.

It was clear as soon as the first results came in that this was going to be a horrific night for Scottish Labour and its leader Iain Gray. The first scalps taken by the SNP included Andy Kerr, Gray’s number two and other senior Labour figures including Tom McCabe. In the early hours of the morning, as Labour figures watched in horror from the BBC’s election studio, Glasgow seats also began to fall. The loss of Glasgow Anniesland and Glasgow Shettleston early on were especially bad portents. Nicola Sturgeon, SNP Deputy First Minister, also held Glasgow Southside which represented an impressive turnaround compared to just six weeks ago,

Strangely, the Labour share of the vote has held up well. The major dynamic at work in this election has rather been the transfer of Lib Dem votes to the SNP. Labour attempted to use this to rationalise the loss but this somewhat begs the question as to why they failed to capture these switching voters.

These results border on an unmitigated disaster for the Scottish Liberal Democrats. Both Tavish Scott and Liam McArthur both saw their majorities significantly cut by Independents in Shetland and Orkney and, at the time of writing, they have only returned one MSP on the Scottish mainland.

Meanwhile the Scottish Conservative Party can only hope that it has steadied its ship and maintained its vote. The party has largely flat-lined in the polls and failed to make any significant gains, although Annabelle Goldie’s no nonsense approach throughout the election, certainly gained the party some credibility.

Finally, the Scottish Green Party saw some success. The party was able to gain a small number of regional list seats, returning Co-Convener Patrick Harvie. They will have a more prominent role in the future Scottish Parliament.

This election was all about Alex Salmond. The SNP fielded a more experienced team and although they have clearly benefited from the unpopularity of the Lib Dems, it now has a mandate in place that strengthens its case against Westminster cuts and for a referendum on independence.  Scottish Labour has lost many key figures and will be left with a largely inexperienced team to try and reclaim what was once their electoral stronghold.

 By Kenny

This Week in Scotland

 

Over the holiday weekend, Scottish Labour conducted a campaign ‘re-launch’ in an effort to regain the initiative as we head into the final week of campaigning. Scottish Labour has so far trained their guns on the UK coalition Government, with particular emphasis placed on it being Conservative led. However, this re-launch has seen Scottish issues take centre stage, with particular emphasis directed towards the constitutional implications of re-electing the SNP. Labour figures, including Ed Miliband and Ed Balls, have stressed this week that a re-elected SNP administration would prioritise an independence referendum rather than focusing on important issues such as job creation and economic growth. With opinion polls continuing to show minimal support for independence, Iain Gray hopes that by drawing attention to the potential economic implications of such a ‘divorce’, it will help stem the party’s current downward trend in the polls and convince the electorate that policy is more important than personality.

Talking of polls the holiday period also saw the latest YouGov Poll commissioned by the Scotland on Sunday (24/04/11) published. Topline figures suggested that the SNP have a 13 point lead over Labour in the Constituency vote and a 10 point lead in the Regional list. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats continue to hover around the 12% and 8% respectively. It is worth noting the fact that the Greens are polling at 7%, making them potential king makers. If the above materialised then the SNP would win 61 seats (+14), Labour 41 (-5), Conservatives 13 (-4), Lib Dems 6 (-10) and the Greens 8 (+6).

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Tavish Scott followed in the footsteps of Vince Cable by launching an extraordinary and savage attack on the Tories in an interview in Wednesday’s Scotsman. Mr Scott claims that Nick Clegg has spared Scotland the ‘worst excess of Thatcherism’ by tempering the Tories who would have ‘burned Scotland at the stake’ if they had ruled alone. His comments come as the Scottish Lib Dems continue to try and distance themselves from the Tories and as the party continues to languish in the polls.

This week has also seen a plethora of mini-manifesto launches. Scottish Labour launched their Disabilities and Older People’s manifestos, while the SNPs published a manifesto on jobs. Not to be outdone, the Tories launched one on Sports, the Lib Dems a Rural Affairs one, while the Greens published two, one focusing on the rural economy and another on energy.

One of the more bizarre stories of the election so far occurred last night when Iain Gray accused Alex Salmond of ‘hiding’ from him after the two leaders found themselves in the same ASDA store. Unsurprisingly, the SNP has branded this claim as ‘desperate’ and that the situation unfolded very differently with Iain Gray having ‘turned tail’ rather than face the First Minister. The Tories, this afternoon added their two pence by branding the two parties as ‘infantile’.

Scottish Labour ‘Re-launch’: Too little, too late?

Over the holiday weekend, Scottish Labour conducted a campaign ‘re-launch’ in an effort to regain the initiative as we head into the final fortnight of campaigning. Although Scottish Labour claim that this ‘re-launch’ was scheduled all along, it hasn’t stopped opposition parties and commentators drawing parallels with Michael Foot and the 1983 UK General Election.

Scottish Labour has so far trained their guns on the UK coalition Government, with particular emphasis placed on it being Conservative led. This has seen the campaign often focus on UK issues rather than devolved issues, preaching to the converted and forgetting that the Conservatives have no chance of being the largest party in Scotland come May 6^th.

So what’s the focus of the ‘re-launch’? Simply, focus on Scottish issues and in particular the constitutional implications of re-electing the SNP. Iain Gray claims that Mr Salmond would focus on an independence referendum rather than job creation and economic growth; that foreign investors would be wary of investing in an independent Scotland under a new tax regime and even currency (euro); that the SNPs much vaunted arc of prosperity, now resembles an “arc of insolvency”; and that without the UK, Scotland could not have bailed the banks out.

Having spent much of the pre-election build up and early rounds closing the gaps between SNP and Labour policy, Mr Gray is now seeking to draw clear “red lines” in the sand. Labour’s message will focus on job creation rather than independence, commitments to eradicate youth unemployment rather than an SNP track record of soaring unemployment, fewer construction and teaching posts and support for nuclear power rather than renewables “rhetorical fantasy” to name but a few listed by Mr Gray.

Is it too late? It was for Michael Foot but this does not necessarily mean it will be for Iain Gray.

This Week in Scotland

The Scottish Green Party launched its manifesto this week at the Botanical Gardens in Edinburgh.  The manifesto is aimed at offering an alternative narrative to what the Greens are calling the “failed agenda”. The Greens believe that governments of all colours across the UK are fixated on making cuts rather than challenging the need for cuts. The manifesto is deliberately pitched at widening the party’s appeal and countering the SNP’s successful championing of the green agenda. The party hopes that by focusing on ‘progressive tax policies’ and committing itself to popular tickets such as free university education, disillusioned voters, particularly Lib Dems, will be persuaded to vote Green.

Westminster big beasts hit the Scottish campaign trail this week as David Cameron, Danny Alexander, Vince Cable and former PM Gordon Brown all made appearance. Cameron was in Inverness to highlight the concessions the Scottish Tories have negotiated over the last parliament and that the Scottish Tories are the only ones offering common sense solutions to Scotland’s problems. Cameron also said that the Scottish Tories “can do better” and that it was up to Annabel Goldie to decide if the Scottish Tories would enter a coalition post-election.  Vince Cable attacked the Conservatives in a visit to Edinburgh, claiming that the Lib Dems are the only thing stopping the Tories from repeating the ‘social devastation wrought by Thatcher’. Meanwhile, former PM Gordon Brown claimed that only Iain Gray would ‘stand up for working people’ during a campaign event in Dunfermline.

The Scottish Sun this week urged its readership to back the SNP on May 5^th. The paper believes the SNP are best placed to “drag Scotland out of the economic shambles left by Labour – and to help drive our country forward”. Importantly, while the paper believes the SNP have proved they can be trusted to govern in Scotland, they do not agree with the SNP on everything – most notably independence. It marks an incredible turnaround by The Sun given its controversial ‘noose’ front page at the last Scottish elections. The Sun support could prove to be crucial where in tight key seats in the central belt where the nationalists are in incredibly tight battles with Scottish Labour. Regardless of its actual impact on voting intentions it is another sign that the momentum is clearly behind the SNP in this election.

The SNP received a further boost with the publication of the latest Ipsos-MORI poll. Conducted on behalf of the Scottish Sun/Times, the poll, if accurate, suggests that Alex Salmond will be returned as First Minister and be within touching distance of the magical 65 seats needed to form a majority government. On the flip side the figures will be worrying for Scottish Labour, as they continue to struggle to portray Iain Gray as a leader and the man to steer Scotland forward. An interesting second question on who Scots would like to see the next First Minister work with found that the Greens are the preferred preference for both SNP and Labour supporters.

Constituency Vote: CON 10%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, SNP 45%

Regional Vote: CON 10%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, SNP 42% and Green 6%

In terms of seats this would give the SNP approximately 61, Labour 45, Conservatives 10, Lib Dems 9 and the Greens 4