A Year in Review

The Scottish Parliament is now in recess, and the first parliamentary year since the 2011 elections has drawn to a close. In recognition of this milestone, each member of the Grayling blogging team was asked to give their personal opinion as to what the most significant event in Scottish politics since May 2010.

UK Consultation into Independence (Luke)

For me the 10^th of January was the most important Scottish political event of the last 12 months. Following the SNPs historic victory in May 2011, and the subsequent inevitability of a referendum on independence, the Secretary of State for Scotland Michael Moore MP, arguably fired the first “real” volley of the independence debate. Addressing the House of Commons, Moore announced that the UK Government was to launch its own consultation on the legal status of the Scottish Government’s planned referendum on the breakup of the UK.

This action “bumped” the First Minister into naming the calendar month (October 2014) just over an hour later, undoubtedly accelerating the publication of its date and thus the debate. While the consultation responses have now been published to show the need for UK legislation, the consultation itself framed much of the tone and sphere of the early debate. It is only now that the pro-Union/pro-Independence camps have official launched their respective campaigns that the debate has begun shifting to content rather than process.

Local government elections (Ross)

May 2012 was a pivotal moment in recent Scottish politics. The SNP’s historic win just 12 months below was starting to create a narrative that somehow the party was going to sweep all before it.

Similarly, for Labour, the local government elections would prove a true test of their durability. In the end, the election results were a bit of a damp squib. The SNP did indeed take more seats, but Labour held on resolutely in Glasgow and Lanarkshire and in the power-sharing deals thereafter, regained some measure of control over Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Stirling and Fife. The upshot is that the SNP still has its work cut out if it is to convince voters to vote for independence in 2014 and Labour has an opportunity to demonstrate that it can deliver good government.

Moreover, the elections underscored a further trend – dismal results for the Lib Dems and flat-lining for the Conservatives. These parties face a far longer road to recovery.

Rupert Murdoch (Robert)

The seemingly never ending cycle of revelations coming from News International and the Leveson Inquiry, which have dominated the UK wide political agenda since the News of the World scandal almost exactly a year ago, somewhat inevitably washed up on the shores of Holyrood this year.

In recent months Rupert Murdoch has stated support for Scottish independence on twitter, and his personal admiration for Alex Salmond. Given the support of the Scottish Sun to the SNP during the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections, such comments would normally be good news for political leaders.

However in the past year, the value of support from the Murdoch Empire no longer appears to carry the same weight that it once did with members of the public. Furthermore the revelations that the Scottish Government gave support to News International over the BskyB bid, helped to muddy the waters of the relationship.  

While both the First Minister, and the Murdochs, have stated that this support was due to the jobs that would be created in Scotland, public perception is everything, and Salmond for perhaps the first time since 2007, found himself going against the grain of public opinion.  It remains to be seen whether or not the First Minister can find a successful balance between the two sides in the coming months.

Darling’s appointment as Better Together figurehead (Matthew)

This is my most significant moment or appointment of 2012 so far.

Why is this role important?

Obviously those who wish to see Scotland remain part of the UK have a lot vested in the leadership of the No campaign.

Vital characteristics required of this person would be charisma, articulation, having vision and importantly the ability to bring a diverse, detached and philosophically disparate group of politicians together under one cause.

Do these appear like the qualities of Alistair Darling?

On paper his appointment doesn’t read quite right. But what choices where there? No one in the parliament can match Salmond. Nor are there many in the MP ranks from Scotland that could raise the eyebrows of the public like the former Chancellor; no pun intended. He was the henchman of Brown, but wasn’t a Labour attack dog so doesn’t offend the Conservatives.

I’m perfectly happy to be convinced as the No campaign evolves. Darling has the qualification of having effectively run the finances of the UK during the last years of the Labour Government. Indiscretions like bringing about an economic apocalypse should be parked at the door, not that the YES campaign should be advised to drop that campaign theme.

He understands the risks Scotland would face if it went it alone. But can he give us a vision for what Scotland could be; that will be his biggest challenge.

The third option… (Sarah)

The referendum on Scottish independence is significant in itself but it is the third option which may prove the pivotal factor in Scotland’s future. 

A recent IpsosMori poll suggests that 41% back the Devo Plus proposals for more powers while remaining within the UK, while only 27% back full independence and 29% would prefer to retain the current settlement.  Although there is still a debate as to whether there will be a third option on the ballot, the impetus amongst Scots to remain part of the union but with more devolved powers is growing by the day and could turn in to a constitutional reality.

While Parliament is in recess, The Garden Lobby will continue to report on all the latest developments in the Scottish political landscape.

This Week in Scotland

It has perhaps not been the First Minister’s finest week in politics as his relationship with the rich and powerful came crashing down on his head. A week of headlines around media moguls and property tycoons could not have come at a worse time for the SNP in the run up to the local government elections.

First up was the evidence from James and Rupert Murdoch at the Leveson Inquiry, and the release of emails which showed that the First Minister was willing to lobby the Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport, Jeremy Hunt, over the BskyB deal, on behalf of News International.

While the Scottish Government admitted that a phone call had been arranged, it had been subsequently cancelled. At First Ministers Questions, the Labour Party attacked Salmond for his connections to the company, both before and after the hacking scandal emerged.  The First Minister argued that he was supporting jobs in Scotland.

This issue has been developing since the Scottish Sun backed the SNP at the Scottish Parliamentary elections last year, and it remains to be seen how voters will look at the relationship between the First Minister and the media mogul.

As an isolated incident, this news would have perhaps had less of an impact in the media, but this week also saw Donald Trump arrive at the Scottish Parliament to give evidence to the Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee on the countries renewables targets. Mr Trump has been fighting the development of an off-shore wind farm close to his new golf course near Aberdeen.

He argued that tourism would be damaged by the construction of wind farms, and that he did not believe that the technology worked effectively. Trump claimed that he had been given assurances by Jack McConnell, when he was First Minister, and then subsequently by Alex Salmond, that the wind farm would not go ahead. Both deny this. The decision to approve the wind farm is currently with the Scottish Government, and the Committee will continue its inquiry.

In Westminster, the Scotland Bill was finally passed by Parliament, and will receive Royal Assent on Tuesday. Elsewhere the local government elections enter their final weekend, but it is hard to tell if anyone has yet noticed.

By Rob

The Scotland Bill Continued

Today, all parties at the Scottish Parliament are expected to give their approval to a Legislative Consent Motion, backing the powers enclosed within the much publicised Scotland Bill.

First introduced in 2010, the Bill, which is currently working its way through the final stages of the House of Lords, but requires the approval of both the UK and Scottish Parliament’s, aims to significantly bolster the current devolved settlement. We have previously dealt with the Bill most recently here.

While today’s proceedings will bring more financial accountability, including a new Scottish rate of income tax and power over stamp duty, a step closer, it could all become irrelevant oh so quickly. As we’ve said before, many of the measures included within the bill will take years to introduce, with some not coming into force until 2015/16. Thus, it’s unsurprising that the SNP has already labelled the bill “out-of-date” and predicted that it may not even reach the statue books, given the forthcoming independence referendum in 2014.

Regardless of whether you believe the transfer of power goes far enough or not, it is generally agreed that it will help to strengthen the powers of the Parliament, and feed into the idea of devolution being a journey rather than an end in itself. However, with greater power comes greater responsibility. A responsibility no Scottish party has yet outlined to the electorate.

There has been much talk about what Scotland could or could not achieve if it were to vote for independence. However, very little has been dedicated to what the parties will do with the new powers they will actually get through the Scotland Bill. A simple example is how will the Scottish Government, regardless of political make-up, now or in the future, use the new tax raising powers, most notably income tax and stamp duty? Will they go up, down or remain the same? We don’t know. Until such questions are answered, if they are answered at all, the electorate at large will be unable to judge the success and importance of this transfer, and by extension the merits for and against the continuation the Union.

FMQs review

The age old advice of all teachers to answer the question in front of you resonated around the chamber this afternoon as both Johann Lamont and Ruth Davidson led on failing education 

Lamont tackled the First Minister on the depressing statistics published this week by Scottish Survey of Literacy & Numeracy, that highlighted 6/10 S2 secondary school pupils are failing the minimum standards of numeracy. While this is a worthy issue to raise, it walked into one of Salmond’s strengths – he grasps of statistics. Indeed he quickly demonstrated his own numeracy skills by reeling off alternative stats showing improvements in numeracy, before attempting to link these successes to the controversial SNP flagship policy of Curriculum for Excellence. Lamont rubbished such claims, criticised the First Minister for cherry picking his stats to suit his needs, before linking the apparent failings in Scotland’s educational system to broken SNP education promises on class sizes, teacher numbers and PE time.

With the SNP keen to demonstrate that they are delivering for Scotland, a clear narrative has emerged over recent exchanges whereby Lamont, in particular, attempts, with varying degrees of success, to link core issues such as child care, education and the NHS to SNP commitment shortcomings. The charge of broken promises did not resonate with the wider public in the previous parliamentary term, and it is yet to be seen whether it will fare any better this time around.

Willie Rennie tried his best to draw the First Minister onto why, after branding the Scotland Bill as a “dogs dinner”, his government has now agreed to support the legislation despite only achieving one of the SNPs ‘red-line’ issues. While Rennie mocked Salmond’s negotiating abilities as a result, the First Minister brushed off the question by framing the bill as a piece of legislation which had been overtaken by events. This is a reference to the fact that much of the Scotland Bill will not come into fruition until 2015. The year after Salmond hopes Scots will have backed him in the independence referendum.

This Week in Scotland

The Scottish Government announced this week that it will support the Scotland Bill on its return to Holyrood. The bill will see the Scottish Government given increased financial responsibilities, particularly relating to income tax and borrowing powers for capital expenditure. The negotiations between the parliaments also means that Holyrood will be given a role in appointments to broadcasting and Crown Estate positions, while a new procedure for Scottish criminal cases that go to the UK Supreme Court will be convened.

However the announcement, made on the morning of the Budget, is something of a humiliation for the SNP. On gaining a majority in May they quickly set out six demands that should be attached to the bill, namely the full devolvement of power relating to Crown Estate revenues and corporation tax, and threatened to veto the bill if their demands were not met. Alas these demands have largely been omitted. Corporation Tax and Air Passenger Duty remain reserved; no guaranteed seat at the table on EU negotiations has been secured; while concessions relating to the Crown Estate fall considerably short. However, with many of these measures not coming into force until 2015, much of the bill could quickly become irrelevant if Scotland votes ‘Yes’ in 2014.

Reacting to a submission to the Scottish Government’s consultation on independence, made by the MSPs for Shetland and Orkney, the SNPs Angus MacNeil MP suggested to the BBC that the islands in question could be permitted to remain part of the UK regardless of the referendum result if the drive for self-determination was big enough. Such a move would have a considerable effect on an independent Scotland’s economy given, a “fair fraction” of the North Sea’s oil and gas reserves are located in the waters around Shetland and Orkney. This is given further significance given the islanders traditional hostility to Scottish independence and the announcement this week that BP has been given the go-ahead to drill a new deep-water oil well, north-west of Shetland.

As the media continue to dissect the relative merits of the headline announcements contained in George Osborne’s fourth Budget, Osborne also confirmed that three new Scottish enterprise zones would be created in Dundee, Irvine and Nigg; new tax relief for the video games industry; and the prospect of Edinburgh becoming a “super-connected” city thanks to a further £100m commitment. The Scottish Parliament is scheduled to debate the UK Budget on Wednesday next week.

Finally, the Scottish Conservatives have convened for their annual conference in Troon today. Speaking at the Conference, Cameron gave another impassioned defence of the Union, calling on Alex Salmond to “stop dithering and start delivering”. Beyond this, Cameron reemphasised the fact that he was open-minded to further devolution, but only after the referendum, and the “fresh start” offered by Ruth Davidson. Davidson will also launch – Conservative Friends of the Union – her campaign to keep Scotland within the Union.

The Scotland Bill

With the pre-budget leaks dominating the airways ahead of George Osborne’s fourth Budget, it is worth noting that the Scottish Government has agreed to support the Scotland Bill on its return to Holyrood.

The Bill was introduced by the UK Government in 2010, as a result of the recommendations laid out by Calman Commission. It has since been subject to scrutiny by Committees at Westminster and Holyrood.

The agreed proposals will see the Scottish Government given increased financial responsibilities, particularly tax powers relating to land transactions, landfill, income tax and borrowing powers for capital expenditure. Holyrood will be given a role in the appointments in broadcasting, the Crown Estate, and a new procedure for Scottish criminal cases that go to the UK Supreme Court will be convened. Additional powers include powers over the regulation of firearms; drink driving, and speed limits.

While the Scottish Government has secured amendments relating to borrowing powers, the block grant, and the Supreme Court, the headline demands made by the SNP convened Scottish Parliament’s Scotland Bill Committee and the SNP leadership have largely been omitted. Corporation Tax, Alcohol Excise Duty and Air Passenger Duty remain reserved. There is also no movement on a guaranteed seat at the table on EU negotiations, while only slight concessions regarding the Crown Estate and broadcasting have been achieved.

It is therefore unsurprising that on announcing the agreement, the Scottish Government, claimed the Scotland Bill was a “missed opportunity” and falls short in terms of delivering the economic levers to really stimulate the Scottish economy and create jobs. On the other side of the coin, the main Opposition Parties have been quick to hail this transfer of power as devolution in action at a time when polling consistently indicates that the majority of Scots want further devolution. The UK Government in particular, will use this as an example of their on-going commitment to devolution, given the wider independence debate and David Cameron’s interjection earlier this year.

However, as many of these measures will take years to introduce, much of the bill could become irrelevant if Scotland votes to go it alone in 2014. Indeed the SNP have already said that the bill could well be out of date before it even reaches the statue books and the debate on the potential for further devolution of powers has only just begun.

Scottish Independence: Battle lines drawn

Shortly after 5pm last night the Secretary of State for Scotland, Michael Moore MP made a statement to the House of Commons confirming the legal status of any independence referendum. In short, any referendum held by the Scottish Government under the current constitutional settlement would have no legal foundation. As such, any endorsement or rejection of independence would be open to legal challenge.

The consultation on the proposed referendum powers will run for eight weeks. The UK Government’s position can be summarised as the referendum should be held sooner rather than later; the Electoral Commission should be the referee, not a newly created body answerable to Holyrood; the questions should be a straightforward Yes/No; and that the franchise should not be extended to 16 and 17 year olds. All of which is counter to the SNPs plans. Moore’s statement also hinted that the UK Government would only be flexible on the timing.

Just over an hour later, and arguably in response to Moore’s statement, Salmond announced the season and year, if not the exact date, of the independence referendum. However, while its announcement is important, it changes very little as autumn 2014 has been the openly speculated preferred date for some time.

Many important questions surrounding the referendum remain unanswered. For instance, who will oversee the referendum or how many questions will be on the ballot paper. While the Scottish Government also announced a consultation will begin in two weeks, yesterday’s announcement moves the game forward, without actually changing much.

While Unionists have been quick to promote the idea that Salmond’s hand was somehow forced as a result of Cameron et al’s intervention in the debate, they should be careful what they wish for. Salmond is a very canny politician who didn’t pause for breath between announcing the date of the referendum and denouncing Westminster’s intervention as “Thatcher-esque” and trampling on Scottish democracy and the Scottish Parliament. Salmond’s open dismissal of Moore’s viewpoint clearly demonstrates his willingness to ignore the UK Government and go it alone safe in the knowledge that any legal challenge – most likely from a Unionist – would only result in a higher wave of support for independence. Also working in his favour is the fact that the UKs constitution is famously unwritten. Therefore, any attempt to link his plans to the constitution is a grey area to say the least.

We now enter a stage of brinkmanship – whether the UK Government likes it or not, there is now even more uncertainty about the constitutional question. The last thing anyone wants is a referendum result that is contentious. We now face the daunting prospect of further wrangling over the referendum, which can only be to the SNP’s advantage, so a change of tact by the UK Government (e.g. refocus on the ‘benefits’ of the Scotland Bill) will probably come about sooner rather than later. Whether the Unionists can deploy this as an effective counter argument to independence is yet to be discovered.

This Week in Scotland

This week the Scottish Parliament passed the controversial Offensive Behaviour at Football and Threatening Communications (Scotland) Act. The Act aims to tackle the issue of sectarianism and other forms of abusive behaviour, whether the perpetrators are in a public place or commentating online. While the Act undoubtedly has noble intentions, Opposition parties refused to back the legislation. Issuing a joint statement, the four Opposition parties and independent MSP Margo MacDonald warned that the Act was a “bad law which risks doing more harm than good”. They also raised concerns that the Act had been “railroaded” through parliament, setting a “worrying precedent”. With the SNP enjoying comfortable majorities in the Chamber and Committee Rooms, there is genuine concern over a lack of checks and balances.

Holyrood’s Scotland Bill Committee has claimed that the Scotland Bill is “not fit for purpose”, and thus, the Committee is “unable to recommend” that MSPs support the Bill. The Bill, if passed, would see Holyrood gain more financial powers worth around £12bn, the ability to set rates of income tax, control over drink-drive laws, speed limits and airgun legislation. This raises the distinct possibility that the SNP will ‘veto’ the Bill on the grounds that it does not go far enough. The UK Government has previously confirmed that it would not pass the Bill unless it gained consent from Holyrood. Meanwhile, the Scotland Bill Committee at Westminster also confirmed this week that the Crown Estate would not be devolved.

Finally, the Scottish Labour leadership contest will draw to a conclusion this weekend. If polls are to be believed, deputy leader and Union favourite, Johann Lamont MSP will succeed Iain Gray.

SNP Conference

The SNP Party Conference took place in Inverness, which was their first meeting since their election victory in May. Therefore it was unsurprising that the Party was in good cheer. Nevertheless, Ministers remained in a sombre and business-like mood. The focus of discussions and debate centred on the proposed independence referendum.

Amongst a host of literature, donation pleas and a new slogan, “Scotland – Its Starting”, Angus Robertson MP officially unveiled the party’s roadmap for independence. The four step campaign plan seeks to galvanise the party’s base while simultaneously appealing to the wider electorate to consider all possibilities. This would be achieved through a concerted effort to, “raise confidence, optimism and understanding of the independence case” and finally a huge door step and social media campaign to persuade the public. In his keynote speech, Salmond gave the strongest indication yet that the referendum will consist of multiple options (status quo, devolution max and full independence) rather than a straight Yes or No favoured by opponents. While the Conference undoubtedly saw the first meat being applied to the bones of the referendum, it remains a long way short of opponent’s demands for clarity over the exact nature and timing of the question. The campaign was also boosted by the announcement that Scotland’s former national poet, makar Edwin Morgan bequeathed £1million to the independence cause. 

While the debate may be moving towards the campaign for independence, attacks on the UK Government continued unabated. Alex Salmond slammed the UK Governments record and warned the David Cameron not to interfere with referendum; John Swinney proclaimed that an independent Scotland would be the world’s sixth wealthiest country if it had a geographical share of its offshore resources and did not have to ‘subsidise’ the UK, while Fergus Ewing claimed that about half of the North Seas Oil and Gas reserves were as yet unclaimed contrary to recent industry reports. Many in the SNP believe that the UK Government could be goaded into committing a so-called ‘own goal’ if it were to be seen as interfering in Scottish affairs too much.

Away from the issue of independence, energy remained high on the political agenda at the conference, with a strong focus on renewables. A protest outside the conference centre and the publication of the SNH map of projected wind farm projects galvanised the debate. However, the Government made it clear time and again about its commitment to renewables. It also used the conference to reiterate its commitment to the oil industry and used this, and their disagreement with HM Treasury on oil taxation, to help stress the need for independence.

Anyone leaving Inverness could have been left with little doubt that the Party has started to move the debate away from the current Scotland Bill and towards the campaign ahead on independence. Whether the SNP are successful or not, they have indeed chosen a suitable slogan. Scotland – Its starting.

By Ross

This Week in Scotland

Al Gore visited Scotland this week’s to address the Low Carbon Economy conference in Edinburgh. Gore praised Scotland’s renewable energy commitments and Alex Salmond in particular. The FM likened Scotland’s green energy revolution to that of man first farming the land which, while met with an degree of scepticism and hilarity, was enjoyed by the industry which flew in from all corners of the globe.

It was a bad week for Ed Miliband – he couldn’t name all three of the contenders for this autumn’s leadership election, forgetting the name of Ken Macintosh, the front-runner. This grabbed most of today’s headlines and is yet another gift from Labour to the nationalists. It has also damaged Ken’s campaign and added further pressure on an already weakened party.

However, it was also a mixed week for the SNP. The heated debate on sectarianism rumbles on and the First Minister has claimed that Scottish football could be finished if the issue isn’t tackled head on has drawn widespread complaint. Alex Salmond’s chief mandarin, Sir Peter Housden, has also been criticised for comments made at official events claiming that the Calman Commission and the Scotland Bill have become ‘Scottish mist’, prompting the unionist leaders to claim that he has gone ‘native’.

By Matt