In Scotland’s wake? Wales, Plaid Cymru and the independence question.

If Alex Salmond has succeeded in one thing, it is putting the Scottish question at the heart of the UK constitutional debate.  In addition to dominating the political landscape in Scotland, the First Minister’s plans for an independence referendum have cultivated constitutional soul-searching across the United Kingdom.  Perhaps the most intriguing dynamic of this reflection is the developing debate in Wales about the future of the devolution settlement.  To what extent will the Welsh Dragon follow the Scottish Unicorn into unchartered political waters?

Much depends on the presence of a credible political force to harness and develop nationalist sentiment into a mandate and majority to replicate the SNP.  Enter Plaid Cymru.  The Welsh nationalist party presents, if anything, Wales’ best hope as a vehicle for constitutional separatism.  But here the similarities with the SNP end.  Whilst the SNP has continuously advocated an absolute conviction for an independent Scottish state, Plaid’s constitutional aspirations are relatively ambiguous and dimmed by the conflicting attraction of governing in coalition.  A common comparison is that whilst the SNP is a state-building party, Plaid Cymru is a nation-building party, rooted in cultural nationalism and linguistic revival.  

Whilst the party maintains an official goal of independence within the EU, this variance in constitutional aspiration has manifested itself in the race to succeed Ieuan Wyn Jones AM as leader of the party.  The three candidates represent the face of contemporary Welsh nationalism and the debate on how best to advance the position of Wales and its people.  With a previous spell as party leader already under his belt, the former Meirionnydd MP Lord Dafydd Elis-Thomas AM has cautioned against the party becoming distracted by mythical visions of an independent Welsh state, advocating instead a focus on using the tools at hand to deliver change.  At a hustings event in Cardiff Bay on 21 February, the former Assembly Presiding Officer pointed across the harbour to the Senedd, remarking “The future of Wales isn’t over the water in Avalon, it’s in that building.”  For Elis-Thomas, Plaid’s experience in the early years of devolution was one of “leadership failure,” adding: “For some reason Plaid succeeded in winning devolution and didn’t realise what to do with it.”

For Ceredigion AM Elin Jones, the answer to that question is clear; devolution offers Wales a stepping stone to separation, with Plaid Cymru needing to “define and agree democratically within our party our own route map towards independence”.  Whilst the former Rural Affairs Minister cautions against Wales following in Scotland’s shadow, Ms Jones has suggested that two consecutive election victories would mandate a referendum on independence for Wales.

And then there is Leanne Wood. Raised in the industrial Rhondda Valley, the socialist former probation officer would, if successful, become the first party leader unable to speak fluent Welsh.  But this, say her supporters, is her potential strength, broadening the appeal of the party beyond the linguistic heartlands of its core membership.  Famous for being ejected from the Chamber for referring to Her Majesty the Queen as “Mrs Windsor”, the South Wales Central AM is hugely popular with the party’s younger members.  Whilst aspiring to create a sovereign Welsh republic, she contends that ‘real independence’ through economic decentralisation and greater autonomy over resources presents the best opportunity to tackle economic hardship and social disparity. 

The current leadership contest is therefore crucial in shaping Plaid Cymru’s response to events in Scotland.  However, the mood of the wider electorate will ultimately, as is the case in Scotland, be the most significant force in shaping Wales’ constitutional future.  And here any similarities with Scotland evaporate once again.  Appetite for independence in Wales remains minimal despite the on-going debate on the future of the UK, hovering at around 10% in most polls.  A recent ICM poll placed the figure as low as 7%.  Ask the same question about the future of Wales if Scotland were to gain independence, and the figure rises to just 12%.  Perhaps more surprising is that even amongst Plaid voters only around a third support the idea of a fully independent Wales, food for thought for the party’s leadership contenders.

The SNP’s calls for an option of further devolution within the UK, so-called ‘devo-max’, raises the prospect of a substantially reconfigured union, and with it the question of the position of Wales.  Here, Wales sits in a unique position; caught between the separatist ambitions of Salmond’s administration in Edinburgh, and England with little experience of devolution and perceptions of an unfairly balanced settlement.  It is in this void that Welsh politicians perhaps have their best change at influencing the constitutional direction of the UK.  Anxious to maintain important levers of power in Cardiff Bay yet keen to remain within the social and economic framework of the UK, it is not inconceivable that Welsh politicians may look to gradual British federalisation in an attempt to preserve Wales’ status as a devolved nation within a wider social union. 

In considering the potential for a level of fiscal autonomy in Scotland, the Calman Commission mooted the idea of broad social-based citizenship as the basis for a reformed UK. The newly-formed Silk Commission, currently exploring the possibility of limited fiscal powers will also offer further suggestions on the future of the devolution settlement in Wales.  Moreover, federalism appears to be gaining currency among key opinion formers within Welsh public life. In a new book, senior Welsh Conservative AM David Melding explores the possibility of a federal Britain.  First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones AM recently announced that he has written to Prime Minister David Cameron MP calling for the establishment of a commission to consider the constitutional structure of the entire UK.  At a St David’s Day press conference in Cardiff Bay, the First Minister added: “I believe that there is a case for reforming the UK’s central institutions to reflect the reality of a looser UK with multiple centres of democratic accountability.”  The challenge, therefore, is how to organise and plan for the future governance of the UK; constitutional conventions may be formed to seek consensus but this remains difficult when separatist movements are a legitimate strand of the constitutional debate.  Then there is England which, with circa 85% of the UK’s population and the lion’s share of seats at Westminster, remains the elephant in the room when it comes to the future of the United Kingdom. 

Regardless of the referendum result, the possibility of Scottish secession will continue to drive constitutional debate in all four corners of the UK.  For Wales’ politicians, the challenge is how to respond.  The Plaid Cymru leadership outcome will to some extent shape that party’s position and the wider political debate in Wales.  However, perhaps more telling will be the response of the unionist parties who urgently need to offer a stable, inclusive and alternative vision on how the Lion, the Unicorn and the Dragon can live happily ever after.          

Guest Post from Matt in our Cardiff office

Guest Post: Welsh Labour – close, but no cigar

With the Welsh results in our friends in Wales have produced the following summary of events. Technical difficulties prevented this being posted Friday night. Apologies.

What was predicted to be an exciting election for Wales has lived up to expectations, with some high profile casualties at the ballot box and some surprising wins.

Welsh Labour has performed strongly at these elections but have fallen just short of the 31 needed for a majority, instead gaining 30 seats (+4). They re-took Blaenau Gwent, securing Alun Davies’ move from a regional list to a constituency seat, and now dominate Cardiff with the election of Julie Morgan in Cardiff North and Jenny Rathbone in Cardiff Central – by just 38 votes. They have dealt a blow to Plaid Cymru after Keith Davies ousted Helen Mary Jones, deputy leader of Plaid, in Llanelli.  

Welsh Labour’s leader, Carwyn Jones, had made it clear before the election that they would seek to govern alone with a majority, but with 30 seats the possibility remains that there will be a Labour-led coalition Assembly Government.  If Labour do try to go it alone in Government with borrowed votes from other parties, there will be interesting questions around which parties the Presiding Officer and Deputy Presiding Officer (who cannot vote) will come from.

The Welsh Conservatives proved to be victims of their own success as the shock news emerged this morning that, as a result of gains elsewhere, their leader Nick Bourne had lost his Mid and West Wales regional list seat. Speculation over who will take over the reins as leader of the party began immediately, complicated further after one person tipped to be the next leader, Jonathan Morgan, was defeated by Labour’s ex-MP Julie Morgan in Cardiff North. Andrew RT Davies, who was re-elected as AM for South Wales Central, is a probable contender for the role, and it has been suggested that he may face competition from Darren Millar. 

The Welsh Conservatives have achieved some real successes at the election, increasing their share to 14 seats, up from 12 in 2007. They made some important gains in areas such as Aberconwy and Montgomeryshire, but failed to repeat their UK General Election victory in the target seat of Vale of Glamorgan, where Welsh Labour’s Jane Hutt increased her majority. Angela Burns has held on to her seat against a strong challenge from both Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru in Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire.

Plaid Cymru have been hit hard in this election with the loss of key party figures. Nerys Evans’ bold move to contest the constituency seat of Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire in order to move off the regional list has not paid off, leaving the party without one of its strong performers in the Assembly. They have fallen victim to the successes of Welsh Labour and the Welsh Conservatives, with Helen Mary Jones and Dai Lloyd both losing their seats. Having failed to capitalise on its years in government where Welsh Labour has succeeded, there is no doubt that in the coming months the party will be taking a long hard look at reasons for their disappointing performance. 

The Welsh Liberal Democrats have suffered both from the knock-on effect of their UK party’s decision to enter coalition on a UK level, and also from the departure of important figures in Mick Bates and Mike German. It had been predicted that the party would return as few as 3 AMs, but they have fared better than expected with 5 Assembly Members – Kirsty Williams held on to her Brecon and Radnorshire seat, and they have retained places on all but the South Wales East regional list, where Veronica German lost her seat.

By Sara

Guest Post: Early Take on the Welsh Election

Our first guest blog comes from our friends in Cardiff.

After a dramatic evening, with a number of high profile causalities, Wales has woken up to the possibility that the Welsh Labour will be governing with a majority, following a number of dramatic wins.

At the time of writing, the Party currently holds 25 seats and needs a further 6 to ensure a majority, having regained the Plaid held seat of Llanelli as well as winning Blaenau Gwent, previously held by an Independent Candidate.  The party now dominates Cardiff, having claimed Cardiff Central (the first time they have held this seat in Assembly history) from the Welsh Liberal Democrats as well as taking Cardiff North from the Welsh Conservatives. 

The major media story of the election so far is Welsh Conservative Leader Nick Bourne losing his regional seat in Mid and West Wales.  Bourne has been a victim of his party’s buoyancy – due in part to success in Montgomeryshire where the Conservatives have regained the seat from the Liberal Democrats, capitalising on the electoral success of Glyn Davies MP last year and a number of highly contentious local issues.  Despite their leader’s departure the Welsh Conservatives can reflect on a solid performance so far.

Plaid Cymru held seats yet should feel somewhat disappointed, despite their traditionally strong seats in the north yet to be called.  The party has lost some big hitters with deputy leader Helen Mary Jones in Llanelli, touted as a future leader, losing her seat to Welsh Labour, and Nerys Evans, who was seen as one of the stars of the Third Assembly, failing to take Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire. 

Already weakened by the departure of senior figures such as Mike German and Mick Bates, the Welsh Liberal Democrats have struggled over recent weeks to distance themselves from their UK Government colleagues. Losing Cardiff Central and Montgomeryshire are huge blows to the party, and their only success so far is the party’s leader retaining her seat in Brecon and Radnorshire, as well as securing two regional seats.

By Sara Jones

Scottish Conservative Coalition U Turn?

Flicking through the papers on Sunday morning, I came across this story in the Scotland on Sunday.  The paper claims that the Scottish Conservatives are about to perform a major policy U-turn in regards to potentially forming a coalition post 6 May 2011. 

The basic idea is that heading into the 2007 elections the Tories were openly hostile to forming a coalition come what may.  Their approach this time round will be closer to ‘let’s talk’.

I doubt that the Tories were ever wholeheartedly against forming a coalition, but rather more there was no one deemed ‘acceptable’ to form one with.  To a large extent this remains true looking towards 2011 and beyond. However, David Cameron’s actions post UK General Election has, if the Scotland on Sunday is correct, forced its Scottish counterpart’s hand.  It would look rather ridiculous to be hostile towards coalition government in Scotland when your party leader has formed one to take control at Westminster. 

Replication of the ConDem Westminster coalition is out of the question based on pure electoral maths.  An agreement with Labour is nigh on impossible due to the gulf in ideological beliefs, Westminster politics and grassroots support. This leaves the SNP. The paper quotes an unnamed ‘senior tory’ as stating:

“The SNP is difficult because of the constitutional issue. But if the constitutional issue could be parked and you ask ‘are there areas of common ground?’ The answer is yes. It would be difficult but possible. It is not inconceivable”

While the Tories have worked successfully with the SNP Government over the last four years to gain concessions, most notably cuts in business rates and police numbers, is it really conceivable that the Party with ‘Unionist’ as part of its name, could work with a Party bent on breaking up that same union? Observers will point out that Labour in Wales currently form a coalition with Plaid Cymru.

Furthermore would the SNP be willing to ‘park’ their constitutional aspirations for a further four years? An option could be a similar agreement as to that currently operating between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats surrounding voting reform.  However, while this could potentially secure another term for the SNP it importantly would not secure the desired Independence Referendum. An informal alliance where the Tories agree to work with the SNP on all non-constitutional issues is another possibility.

One final thought.  It’s all well andood saying your open to forming a coalition, but someone has to agree that you’re the right bedfellow.  On the evidence of the UK General Election the Tories remain toxic, a position the SNP, Labour and the Lib Dem’s are surely keen to see maintained.  Agreeing to form a coalition with the Tories could potentially help to ‘detoxify’ the Party, especially if they showed themselves as capable.