The Liberal Democrats and the Case of Federalism in Scotland

Mere days after what some are describing as a historic meeting between the Prime Minister and First Minister of Scotland to set the course for the independence vote, it is perhaps poor timing on the part of the Liberal Democrats to publish their vision of a federal Scotland.

Nevertheless the paper, produced by former Lib Dem leader Sir Menzies Campbell, makes the case that Scotland should have greater powers, but remain part of the United Kingdom.

Titled “Federalism: the best future for Scotland” the report argues that the future for the UK is through the federal system, whereby each of the four states would have responsibility over tax raising and spending, with defence, foreign affairs and welfare remaining with the UK Parliament.  Under the proposals the Treaty of Union would be abolished and replaced with a new declaration of federal union, leaving the Scottish Parliament (and the other devolved administrations) responsibility for the setting of tax rates, and subsequent expenditure. They would also be given increased borrowing powers.

The Lib Dems also make the case for further devolved powers to local government, including stopping the ability of Ministers to overrule councils, control of council tax and business rates to be handed back along with further financial freedoms.

This “home rule” proposal is broad in nature, but includes a recommended that the Liberal Democrats carry a commitment to this policy in their 2015 manifesto. That is of course, based on the presumption that the people of Scotland reject outright independence.

It is hard to gauge how much of an effect this report will have. With the second question in the referendum on further powers now in the waste basket, and all the parties gearing up for 2014, the debate about “devo max”, “devo-plus” and “home rule” are likely to take a back seat for the time being.

David Cameron has indicated that he would be minded to support further powers, but the context of what exactly that means has yet to be determined. In that sense today’s paper is firing the starting gun for the post referendum constitutional debate. But until 2014 comes and goes we are unlikely to see any major commitments from the national parties over what powers should be transferred to Holyrood.

By Rob

A Year in Review

The Scottish Parliament is now in recess, and the first parliamentary year since the 2011 elections has drawn to a close. In recognition of this milestone, each member of the Grayling blogging team was asked to give their personal opinion as to what the most significant event in Scottish politics since May 2010.

UK Consultation into Independence (Luke)

For me the 10^th of January was the most important Scottish political event of the last 12 months. Following the SNPs historic victory in May 2011, and the subsequent inevitability of a referendum on independence, the Secretary of State for Scotland Michael Moore MP, arguably fired the first “real” volley of the independence debate. Addressing the House of Commons, Moore announced that the UK Government was to launch its own consultation on the legal status of the Scottish Government’s planned referendum on the breakup of the UK.

This action “bumped” the First Minister into naming the calendar month (October 2014) just over an hour later, undoubtedly accelerating the publication of its date and thus the debate. While the consultation responses have now been published to show the need for UK legislation, the consultation itself framed much of the tone and sphere of the early debate. It is only now that the pro-Union/pro-Independence camps have official launched their respective campaigns that the debate has begun shifting to content rather than process.

Local government elections (Ross)

May 2012 was a pivotal moment in recent Scottish politics. The SNP’s historic win just 12 months below was starting to create a narrative that somehow the party was going to sweep all before it.

Similarly, for Labour, the local government elections would prove a true test of their durability. In the end, the election results were a bit of a damp squib. The SNP did indeed take more seats, but Labour held on resolutely in Glasgow and Lanarkshire and in the power-sharing deals thereafter, regained some measure of control over Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Stirling and Fife. The upshot is that the SNP still has its work cut out if it is to convince voters to vote for independence in 2014 and Labour has an opportunity to demonstrate that it can deliver good government.

Moreover, the elections underscored a further trend – dismal results for the Lib Dems and flat-lining for the Conservatives. These parties face a far longer road to recovery.

Rupert Murdoch (Robert)

The seemingly never ending cycle of revelations coming from News International and the Leveson Inquiry, which have dominated the UK wide political agenda since the News of the World scandal almost exactly a year ago, somewhat inevitably washed up on the shores of Holyrood this year.

In recent months Rupert Murdoch has stated support for Scottish independence on twitter, and his personal admiration for Alex Salmond. Given the support of the Scottish Sun to the SNP during the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections, such comments would normally be good news for political leaders.

However in the past year, the value of support from the Murdoch Empire no longer appears to carry the same weight that it once did with members of the public. Furthermore the revelations that the Scottish Government gave support to News International over the BskyB bid, helped to muddy the waters of the relationship.  

While both the First Minister, and the Murdochs, have stated that this support was due to the jobs that would be created in Scotland, public perception is everything, and Salmond for perhaps the first time since 2007, found himself going against the grain of public opinion.  It remains to be seen whether or not the First Minister can find a successful balance between the two sides in the coming months.

Darling’s appointment as Better Together figurehead (Matthew)

This is my most significant moment or appointment of 2012 so far.

Why is this role important?

Obviously those who wish to see Scotland remain part of the UK have a lot vested in the leadership of the No campaign.

Vital characteristics required of this person would be charisma, articulation, having vision and importantly the ability to bring a diverse, detached and philosophically disparate group of politicians together under one cause.

Do these appear like the qualities of Alistair Darling?

On paper his appointment doesn’t read quite right. But what choices where there? No one in the parliament can match Salmond. Nor are there many in the MP ranks from Scotland that could raise the eyebrows of the public like the former Chancellor; no pun intended. He was the henchman of Brown, but wasn’t a Labour attack dog so doesn’t offend the Conservatives.

I’m perfectly happy to be convinced as the No campaign evolves. Darling has the qualification of having effectively run the finances of the UK during the last years of the Labour Government. Indiscretions like bringing about an economic apocalypse should be parked at the door, not that the YES campaign should be advised to drop that campaign theme.

He understands the risks Scotland would face if it went it alone. But can he give us a vision for what Scotland could be; that will be his biggest challenge.

The third option… (Sarah)

The referendum on Scottish independence is significant in itself but it is the third option which may prove the pivotal factor in Scotland’s future. 

A recent IpsosMori poll suggests that 41% back the Devo Plus proposals for more powers while remaining within the UK, while only 27% back full independence and 29% would prefer to retain the current settlement.  Although there is still a debate as to whether there will be a third option on the ballot, the impetus amongst Scots to remain part of the union but with more devolved powers is growing by the day and could turn in to a constitutional reality.

While Parliament is in recess, The Garden Lobby will continue to report on all the latest developments in the Scottish political landscape.

Scottish Local Elections: Summary

As the rosettes are put away for another year, the horse-trading to establish coalitions and informal agreements of support across Scotland’s 32 local authorities began in earnest over the course of the weekend.

While negotiations are still on-going in many places, such as Aberdeen, other authorities have moved quickly to declare their, at times, surprising political leadership. For instance, Edinburgh City Council announced last night that it will be run by a coalition between Labour and the SNP, while the latter has secured an informal agreement with the Green’s in Midlothian. Against this backdrop, debate has been on-going as to what this all actually means nationally, and which party can claim the victory.

In short, the election results are a mixed bag resulting in all of the main political parties being able to claim a victory of sorts to keep the home fires burning.

The SNP secured the largest share of the popular vote at 32.32%, compared to Labour’s 31.39%. As the number crunchers at SNP HQ have been quick to report, this represents a 4.46% increase from their 2007 performance. They can also celebrate majorities in Angus, Dundee, while enjoying being the largest party in Perth & Kinross and Stirling, amongst others. Though given the MP and MSP make-up of these areas this may not have been a surprise.

The election was dominated by Glasgow and whether the SNP could wrestle control away from Labour. Reading the press during the campaign, you could have been mistaken for thinking that the battle for Glasgow was the only game in town. The fact that this was even on the cards at all is testament to the SNPs ambition and their recent successes. Therefore, having given such prominence to capturing Glasgow, the SNPs overall results should arguably be viewed in that context. So while gains were made, the party ultimately failed to secure their number 1 objective – Glasgow. As such, the results make for disappointing reading for the SNP. Arguably, they suffered from a weight of expectation, which the party machine was unable, or unwilling to puncture.

For Labour the relief at holding Glasgow was palpable. Losing Glasgow combined with the failure to retake London would have been disastrous for their UK leadership, despite massive gains throughout England and Wales.

For Scottish Labour the results were better than expected.  In 14 areas, they are the largest party, including in Aberdeen and Fife. Importantly, it appears their tactic for attacking the SNPs perceived preoccupation with 2014, at the expense of local issues worked, providing the party with  a narrative to build on as they continue to recover from last year’s Holyrood elections. However, the fact that Scottish Labour failed to replicate the sweeping success of its counterparts in England & Wales will be noted with concern by the party’s hierarchy.

For the Coalition Government in Westminster these were always giong to be difficult elections – falling half way through their term of office. While the Tory share of the vote once again fell, they have cemented their position as Scotland’s third party and may enjoy being kingmakers in some  areas. While the results are far from a disaster for Ruth Davidson and her leadership, they will serve as a timely reminder of the uphill struggle she has in dragging the party back into mainstream relevance in Scotland.

For the Scottish Lib Dems, the election was a disaster, following the familiar pattern of the Scottish Parliament results. Despite able leadership by Willie Rennie, the party continues to haemorrhage votes. Beyond the fact that they lost 80 councillors – they now have 71 – the Lib Dem leader of Edinburgh City Council, Jenny Dawe lost her seat, while in Edinburgh’s Pentland Hills ward the party’s candidate was beaten by a man dressed as a penguin. Two years after the formation of the Coalition, the electorate continue to punish  the party for the difficult choice that it made.

Party	Councils		Councillors
	Total	+/-	Total	+/-
SNP	2	2	424	+57
LAB	4	2	394	+58
Con	0	0	115	-16
LD	0	0	71	-80
OTHER	3	0	219	-18

 

This Week in Scotland

The local elections are finally here, and at the time of writing, the results are just starting to come through in Scotland. While the rest of the UK has seen Labour making significant gains, the situation in Scotland will undoubtedly see a different pattern emerge due to the SNP. Turnout initially appears to have been higher than expected.

As we have said before, the place to watch today is Glasgow, which will tell the story about the relative fortunes of Scottish Labour and the SNP, and the last major election before the independence referendum. While this is the key prize, it will be interesting to see how parties, such as the Liberal Democrats, fare in their natural heartlands. At the time of this post it appears that the Labour vote is holding steady, the SNP are making some gains, but perhaps not to the extent commentators were expecting. It is still early days, and there is still everything to play for.

However, it is unlikely we will know along what party lines some of the councils will be run for another week or two as the parties negotiate with one another to build coalitions. What we should see by the end of the day is the shape of voting patterns in Scotland, and whether 2011 was a flash in the pan for the SNP, or represented their establishment as the natural party of government in Scotland.

Electoral success at the local elections may give the SNP some breathing room after what has been a tough couple of weeks for the party, with the First Minister coming under fire over the phone hacking scandal and his relationship with Rupert Murdoch. As one of the few (if only) political leaders, to embrace the media magnate after the revelations from the News of the World, the First Minister took a large gamble. A gamble which does not seem to have paid off.

The refusal of Alex Salmond to confirm, or deny that he was the victim of phone hacking, until his appearance at the Leveson Inquiry next month, has taken media scrutiny to a new level. Opposition members have accused him of ignoring Parliament, and retreating behind a UK-wide inquiry. A role reversal appears to have taken place between the parties. Needless to say, the First Ministers evidence at Leveson will be the subject of intense scrutiny by journalists and opposition parties alike.

In Parliament, the Scottish Government introduced the Civil Justice Bill to Parliament. The bill seeks to establish a Scottish Civil Justice Council, which will replace the Court of Session Rules Council and Sheriff Court Rules Council. It would be anticipated that this new Council would also advise and make recommendations on the civil justice system.

The other central plank of the legislation will be to introduce financial contributions in ‘criminal legal aid’ for those who can afford to pay. Those who could not afford to pay would continue to receive free access.

But for this week, the eyes are on the local counts. They are expected to continue in the early evening, and perhaps beyond. And then after that, the negotiations begin. It will be next week before the dust settles and we have a clearer idea of the composition of the local authorities and who may rule the roost.

This Week in Scotland

With two weeks to go, the local election campaigns have failed to ignite much excitement among voters in Scotland, with low turnouts predicted across the regions.

Nevertheless, the parties have spent the week launching their manifestos, with the Liberal Democrats first out of the gate, with a document promoting jobs and growth. Willie Rennie has asked voters to judge the party on its local government record, and its commitment to issues such as caring for the young and old, and the environment.

Labour released their manifesto the following day, and put their focus on tackling the unemployment crisis in Scotland. Johann Lamont accused Mr Salmond of passing on 89% of Westminster government cuts to councils, and that “Putting the SNP in charge of a council is like putting Craig Whyte in charge of your tax return”. Craig Whyte being, of course, the man most consider responsible for the crisis Glasgow Rangers football currently finds itself in.

The announcement appeared to concentrate on attacking the SNP, rather than articulating Labours own message. By doing so the party may be making the same mistake that it encountered in 2011. Interestingly, Lamont conceded that the SNP were likely to win more seats than Labour.

The SNP launched their campaign today, with Alex Salmond promoting jobs and families as the key platforms on which his parties’ campaign would be focused. The deal announced on Thursday, to plug a £40 million gap in council tax benefit funding, has provided him with a strong card for the next two weeks. However, Willie Rennie has now called for the suspension of Derek McKay, Local Government Minister and SNP election coordinator, for making this announcement during purdah. 

What has become increasingly clear is that for both SNP and Labour, the prize is Glasgow. For Labour, it is the stronghold that it needs to protect as it hopes to rebuild the fortunes of the party in Scotland. For the SNP, it would represent yet another milestone in its journey to become the natural party of government in Scotland.

Meanwhile in Parliament, Alex Salmond came under heavy criticism following the announcement by the South Korean energy firm, Doosan, that it would no longer be going ahead with plans to open a wind farm research facility and factory  in Renfrew. While the details of this decision only came into the public domain recently, the Scottish Government was advised about it in December 2011.

The investment was worth £170 million, and would have created 1,700 jobs. Needless to say, critics have rounded on the First Minister and are demanding further details about why the project was still being highlighted in Scottish Government materials, such as the 2012-2013 Budget papers.

By Rob

This Week in Scotland

As politicians are on their holidays/working in the local area/campaigning, the national stage has been somewhat quiet. The biggest political story of the week was the criticism which the Scottish Government came under for allowing anonymous responses to its referendum consultation to be accepted. Opposition groups suggested that this might be open to abuse and would distort the results.

With some back and forth arguments between Labour and the SNP, the Government finally conceded the point, and will not allow anonymous responses to form part of the consultation results analysis. Ministers at the same time did point out that the total number of these type of responses received so far only accounted for 3.5% of the total number of submissions.

This decision, combined by an emboldened UK Government who published the results of their own consultation (see here for further details) this week have put the SNP on the back foot. However it is unlikely to have any long term impact, with the old saying of today’s headlines being tomorrows chip paper coming to mind.

The Electoral Commission have confirmed that 2,493 candidates will be contesting the local Government Elections. The SNP has the most candidates with 613, with Labour putting forward 495. There are 362 Conservatives, 247 Liberal Democrats and 458 Independent. There are a total of 1,223 seats available. The main battlegrounds to watch are in Glasgow and Edinburgh, where the SNP are hoping to make significant gains.

The Liberal Democrats have announced that their national conference will be held in Glasgow in 2013. The event is expected to attract some 7,000 delegates to the city. After the scale of defeat the Lib Dems suffered in the Scottish Parliament elections, the choice of venue can be seen as an attempt to strengthen an area that has traditionally been a solid base for the party. If the UK Government gets its way and the referendum is moved forward to 2013, this could potentially create an interesting situation whereby the conference falls within the timeframe of the vote being held.

By Rob

A Tale of Two Conferences

Both Scottish Labour and the Liberal Democrats chose this weekend to host their Scottish spring conferences, and the shadow of the independence referendum loomed large over proceedings.

Ed Miliband delivered a well-received speech, tackling the SNP on policy issues such as a proposed reduction in corporation tax. On Saturday it was the turn of the newly elected Scottish Labour leader, Johann Lamont. Elected in November last year, she has been handed a party which suffered one of the worst electoral defeats in generations.

Her speech acknowledged the scale of the defeat, but also sought to draw a line in the party’s period of self-reflection. She also went on the attack against Salmond, drawing comparisons between him and David Cameron, while setting out an agenda focused on families and social justice. Lamont also confirmed that Labour would be setting up its own Commission on extending further devolutionary powers. She added that there should not be a contest to see which party could offer the most powers to Scotland, but rather what was the most appropriate powers to transfer to Holyrood. This suggests that Labour will not be lending official support to Devo-Plus.

Perhaps one of the most interesting points she raised, was that of a review of the process by which Labour selects future candidates. One of the reasons that the party lost so many experienced MSPs in 2011 was due to a policy of not letting constituency candidates also sit on the regional lists. It may be that this policy is revisited before the next election.

The speech had all the hallmarks of a traditional Labour speech, and while Lamont’s criticisms were pointed, both she and the party need to begin to articulate a positive campaign for the Union, as opposed to continual attacks on Alex Salmond.

Nick Clegg gave a speech that was as much of a defence of the Liberal Democrats as it was of the Union. Highlighting key policy victories, Clegg sought to demonstrate the positive work his party was doing in Coalition. The defeat the party suffered last year should be a major concern, given that in past years Liberal Democrats have had a strong political base in the Highlands and Islands of Scotland. It remains to be seen whether or not Clegg will have managed to convince the Scottish people that they have benefited from the Coalition.

Willie Rennie on the other hand, focused in on the issues facing Scotland. It was a speech that perhaps was too concentrated on individual issues. While green energy and freedom of information are important, leader speeches should have a wider focus.

Rennie’s main attack on the SNP was through painting Alex Salmond as an elitist. This is an argument that Johann Lamont has been articulating in Parliament in recent weeks, and it appears that this will become a running thread for the opposition parties.

This weekend sees the SNP conference, and with it, perhaps further details about the independence referendum and what shape the “yes” campaign will take.

By Rob

Chris Huhne resigns from UK Cabinet

Following the drama surrounding the acrimonious break-up of Chris Huhne’s marriage and the ensuing criminal charges, the tenacious Energy Secretary has finally left the Cabinet. Over lunchtime today, pro-enterprise former BIS Minister, Ed Davey, was named as the new Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change and Nick Clegg’s Chief Parliamentary and Political Adviser, Norman Lamb, moved to fill the gap at BIS. In addition, amidst the more predictable shuffling, Jo Swinson has been appointed as Clegg’s PPS.

Mr Huhne’s departure and the subsequent arrival of his ally, Davey, will strengthen Clegg’s position in the Cabinet. However, if imprisoned, Huhne could become a longstanding embarrassment to the Lib Dems, in much the same way that Aitken and Lord Archer have been a thorn in the side for the Conservatives. In addition, the inevitable by-election which would follow an imprisonment would be a head-to-head contest between Lib Dems and Tories, which could put a huge amount of strain on the Coalition.

Speculation on the fallout from his potential imprisonment aside, Huhne’s departure has a few positive implications. Clegg now looks secure as Lib Dem leader – as Huhne was always billed as his top rival. Huhne had made attacks on Andy Coulson, Sayeeda Warsi, Theresa May and George Osborne and was not popular in the Cabinet. Perhaps now relations around the table might improve, especially as Ed Davey is a favourite of Steve Hilton’s.

Guest post by Sophie

Scottish Liberal Democrat Conference: Review

If there was a theme emerging from the Scottish Liberal Democrats meeting this weekend in Dunfermline, it was don’t trust the SNP. Both Willie Rennie and Michael Moore wasted little time in lambasting the SNP as fundamentally illiberal and untrustworthy – “they’ve even nabbed our artwork” joked Moore. But the impact of the coalition with the Tories and SNP’s campaign was keenly felt in a conference with so few current MSPs.

Much of Rennie’s maiden speech to the party as Party Leader focused on the inadequacies of the SNP, accusing them of “domination, control and manipulation” and even of “intimidation.” It was, fundamentally, about accountability, but Rennie’s approach very much painted the SNP as an illiberal party. 

Home Rule was also high on the agenda. Long cherished by the Scottish Lib Dems, the issue took a back seat while they were in coalition in Edinburgh with Labour. Moore claimed that the current Scotland Bill was “a great step on the road to Home Rule” and made it clear that Home Rule was still the Party’s ultimate aim. It was as much an effort to placate party members as it was sending out a message to the wider public.

The Scottish Lib Dems seem to be more sure-footed under Willie Rennie’s leadership and have a greater sense of direction.  However, rather than a call to ready themselves for government, Rennie warned “Be proud that we are prepared to be awkward.” It remains to be seen whether this will be sufficient to save the current batch of councillors ahead of next year’s elections.

By Ross

This Week in Scotland

Unsurprisingly, this week has been dominated by the Spending Review. John Swinney’s announcement on Wednesday was dominated by the theme of ‘preventative spending’, or to put it another way, spend now to save (hopefully) later. The Scottish Government stood by its commitments to ring fence health spending, maintaining the council tax freeze and many other popularist policies, all of which reduced Mr Swinney’s room for manoeuvrability. Plans to boost government-backed capital investment were unveiled, alongside commitments to implement the findings of the Christie Commission and McClelland Review, further pay freezes to public sector workers and real term cash cuts for Local Authorities. The big surprise, however, was the announcement of a levy on big retailers who sell tobacco and alcohol, due to come in from April 2012.

Opposition leaders have been quick to accuse Mr Swinney of pushing ‘Westminster cuts’ onto Scotland’s local authorities. They also highlight the fact that at a time when SNP MSPs are demanding further devolution of powers, the same SNP MSPs are apparently content to place further restrictions on individual councils and centralise decision making. Additionally, business leaders have warned investment in the Scottish economy could be hit as the Centre for Public Policy in the Regions, revealed the cumulative rise in business rates by 2015 would be £850M as a result of the review.

Away from the spending review, the Liberal Democrats have come out all guns blazing against the SNP at their national conference with senior figures queuing up to attack the SNP. Vince Cable, mocked Salmond for “queuing up to pay homage” to Rupert Murdoch, Danny Alexander compared the SNP to hard-line Eurosceptics, describing them both as “the enemies of growth”, while Nick Clegg accused Alex Salmond of lacking the “courage of his convictions” over the independence referendum.  This week the Lib Dems have also unveiled a new commission to investigate the issue of “home rule” for Scotland. Essentially, ‘home rule’ stops short of full independence but includes significant further devolution of power.