Alister Darling published the latest Independence poll late night (24/05/12) courtesy of YouGov.
Headline figures are 37% support independence, 57% wish to remain in the Union, with 10% undecided.
The survey of 1,004 Scots were asked if they agreed that Scotland “should become a country independent of the rest of the UK.”
A breakdown of results also show that only 27% of women agreed with the above statement, with 47% of respondents believing Scotland would be financially worse off after separation.
Additionally, only 58% of people who voted SNP last year said that they would back independence.
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The Scotsman carries the latest poll on independence/further devolution this morning. Headline figures are 32% of respondents support independence, compared to 53% against. On constitutional reform, the poll also offered people the choice between the status quo, further powers, and full independence. The poll indicates that further powers was the most popular with 36%, followed by the status quo with 33% and the independence with 24%. The poll also found that support for British institutions such as the monarchy, BBC 6 O’clock news and the Pound has all increased over the last 4 years.
The findings also show why the SNP have changed the language of independence. No longer does the SNP speak in terms of freedom. Rather, the SNP hierarchy go out of their way to stress that an independent Scotland would retain much of these links with the RUK.
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Two independence polls were published over the weekend.
In a survey of 998 adults, between January 25 and February 1, TNS-BMRB, found that 35% would vote Yes to the original referendum question from 2007 – To agree that the Scottish Government should negotiate with the UK so that Scotland becomes an independent state, or to disagree with that proposal. These figures show support for the Union up 6% from last August, with support for independence down 4%. Undecided represented a sizeable 21%.
The poll also repeated a 3 option snapshot first taken in October 2011. Asking for voter preference between the status quo, more power within the UK, of full independence, the poll found that support for the former had risen 3% to 32%, backing for more powers had fallen by 3% to 30%, and support for independence had dropped 2% to 28%.
The second poll of the weekend came courtesy of Panelbase for the Sunday Times. On the referendum question 37% supported independence, 42% opposed and 21% remain undecided.
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The latest survey by YouGov (02/02/12), suggests that the wording of the question, will have a definite effect on the way people vote. The poll, conducted on behalf of Lord Ashcroft, suggests that support for independence drops by up to 8% if the SNPs favoured question is replaced by a pro-Union worded question.
Using Alex Salmond’s favoured wording, support for independence was recorded at 41%. However, when another group were asked – Should Scotland become an independent country or should it remain part of the United Kingdom? – support for independence fell to 33%. A change of 8%. Using this question, support for the Union increased from 59%, under Salmond’s question, to 67%.
On a third question – Do you agree or disagree that Scotland should be an independent country – the inclusion of the word “disagree”, saw support for independence drop by 2%.
This will, almost certainly led to further calls from opponents, for the wording of the SNPs preferred question to come under more scrutiny, and ultimately change.
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New Ipsos MORI Scotland poll out this morning (01/02/12), using the wording that Alex Salmond has suggested for the Scottish referendum.
“Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?”
Topline results were 37% Yes, 50% No, 13% Don’t know. Taking only those certain to vote boost support for YES slightly, shifting the balance to Yes 39%, No 50%. On the other hand, those saying NO were more likely to say they had definitely decided how to vote. Full tabs are here
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A New Statesman/ICM opinion poll (25/01/12) on independence last night suggests that support for and against independence is virtually equal. The poll indicates that 44% of Scots would vote for independence in a straight Yes/NO, compared to 45% against. There were 11% undecided. The poll also indicates that 51% of Scots would vote for full fiscal powers if given the option.
Caution is required with this poll though as the survey pool was just 1,000 people. The level of Scots surveyed is not disclosed.
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The latest Guardian/ICM poll (24/01/12) indicates that the majority of people across the UK do not want to see an independent Scotland. Headline figures indicate that Scots back the Union by 63% to 30%, while 68% of respondents from across the UK believe “the UK is stronger together”.
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Another independence poll has been published today (16/01/12) in the form of the latest YouGov poll commissioned on behalf of Channel 4. Headline figures are as follows:
- Support for independence at 39%, compared to 61% agaist. This is in line with the Sunday Telegraphs ICM poll at the weekend.
- 44% of people believe the Scottish Government should make the decisions regarding the terms of the referendum, compared to 12% who think it should be the UK Government, and 39% a combination of the two.
- In terms of timing 33% back the 2014 date outlined by the Scottish Government, 15% believe it should be put to the country in 2013, and 23% in 2012.
- 43% of voters would prefer a straight Yes/No, compared with 46% who prefer a third option.
- 58% of respondents back ‘devo-max/independence-lite’, compared to 42% who are opposed.
The full results can be accessed here.
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A number of polls were published over the course of the weekend (14/15 Jan). None of which indicate a ground swell for independence.
ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph found that 40% of respondents want to end the union whist 43% do not. However in England, 43% want to end the Union, with only 32% wishing to keep the status quo.
A separate poll for the Mail on Sunday showed that 26% support independence in Scotland with 46% against. In England and Wales, however, there is again a slight increase in support for independence (29%) and a decrease in support for remaining part of the Union (40%).
YouGov’s latest polling indicate that 37% of people support independence, compared with 39% who oppose it. Amongst respondents in Scotland the split was 45% support/45% opposes, amongst respondents in England the split was 37% support and 39% oppose.
What is becoming apparent, and is reflected in these polls, is the increasing belief amongst English respondents that Scotland gains more from the Union than England. As such, English respondents tend to be more likely to support Scottish independence. These polls also suggest that Scottish voters remain more divided.
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The Scottish Sun includes the latest polling from YouGov this morning (12/01/12). Figures show that current support for independence is at 32% with 53% against. Slight decrease in support from their last poll published in the Scotland on Sunday (30/10/11).
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Yesterday (10/01/12), Ipsos Mori published the results of their latest Scottish independence poll. 2,320 people across the UK (including 497 in Scotland) between November 30th and December 6th were asked if they supported independence. The results show that 54% of Scots wish to remain within the Union, compared to 29% who favour independence.
An interesting aside is that only 48% if those questioned in England backed the Union, against 27% who supported Scottish independence. Likewise in Wales, 41% want Scotland to remain in the Union, while on 29% believe Scotland should go it alone.
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Ipsos Moris has today (13/12/11) published their annual end of year poll. The poll suggests that support for independence has soared by 16 points since this time last year. The poll of 1,001 Scottish adults between the 1st and 4th December, asked two principal questions detailed below.
1) As you may know, the Scottish Government plans to hold a referendum on Scotland’s constitutional future during the next Scottish Parliament. The referendum is likely to contain two separate questions. The first question will ask whether you agree or disagree with proposals to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more laws and duties and all tax-raising powers, while Scotland remains part of the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree of disagree with this proposal?
Agree 68%; Disagree 28%; DK 4%
2) The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament ot enable Scotland to become an independent country, separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal?
Independence 38% (+3%); Against 57% (-3%); DK 5%
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According to research conducted by ScotCen (05/12/11), almost two-thirds of Scots would vote for independence if they were guaranteed to be just £500 better off a year.
- 65% for independence if £500 better off; 25% against
- 21% for independence if £500 worse off; 66% against
- 46% for independence if standard of living unchanged; 32% against
The survey of 1,197 adults, suggest that the economic case for remaining/leaving the Union is far from decided.
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The latest independence poll, courtesy of the Scottish Daily Mail (21/11/11) has been released. The poll asked “If Westminster’s political parties held a referendum in Scotland on Scottish independence, how would you vote?”
For Independence: 28%
Against Independence: 53%
Unsure: 17%
Would not vote: 2%
These figures mirror those of the recent TN-BRMB poll for the BBC’s Politics Show.
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Latest independence poll emerged over the weekend courtesy of TNS-BMRB. The poll conducted on behalf of the BBC’s Politics Show asked three questions, in line with a potential multi-option referendum. Option given were full independence, greater devolution (devo-max) or no change. The results are as follows:
Full independence: 28%
Further devolution: 33%
No change: 29%
The poll will add further pressure on the SNP to outline not only outline their referendum proposals but also what exactly they see the “devo-max” option constituting.
Interesting, the poll also sought the opinion of English voters.
Full independence: 24%
Further devolution: 14%
No change: 40%
The poll covered 1020 adults in Scotland and 1665 in England at the end of October.
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The Scotland on Sunday (30/10/11) published the latest YouGov Poll on Scottish Independence at the weekend. The poll found that the majority of Scots remain against independence with no one age group having a majority for separation.
Support for Independence – 34% (+6 from May 2011)
Support for the Union – 52% (-5 from May 2011)
Did not know – 12%
Would not vote – 3%
Survey of 1,075 adults
The above figures represent a return to where the polls were at the turn of last year/pre-election.
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A ComRes poll found that a majority of voters across the UK support Scottish independence by 39% (up 6) to 38% (down 4) from May. When only Scottish voters are taken into account, the poll found that support for independence was up 11 points over the period to 49%, while supporters of the Union were down 9 points to 37%.
An important caveat is that while the UK poll covered 2,000 people, the Scotland Office has pointed out the Scottish sample was just 176 people.
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The latest Scottish Social Attitudes survey for 2010 indicates the vast majority of Scots (74%) believe that Holyrood should have more influence over how Scotland is run. The survey also showed that 61% of those asked also believed that Scots trust Holyrood to act in Scotland’s best interest when compared with Westminster.
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In terms of independence AR found that 42% of Scots aged 18-54 believe independence is inevitable. However, the survey of 500 voters also indicates that only 36% will definitely vote for independence with 47% wishing to remain in the UK.
Elsewhere, Scots believe the economy (35%) and unemployment (27%) are the most important issues of the day. Only 5% believe Independence is the most important issue facing Scotland in 2011.
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For the first time in more than three years, support for independence has surpassed that of those wishing to remain within the Union. The TNS-BMRB poll, published in today’s Herald, indicates the following;
Agree should negotiate on Independence – 39%
Do not agree – 38 %
Don’t know – 23%
Questions asked between 24-31 August 2011.
According to TNS-BMRB’s stats this is only the second time – the first was spring 2008 – support for independence has shown a preference for breaking away from the Union. It also indicates a remarkable change in support. In August 2007, the ‘Yes to independence’ campaign trailed by 15 points, and by 8 points in May 2011.
While questions about the timing, format and legality remain, this latest poll – if accurate – indicates the pro-Union camp has some catch-up to do. In recent weeks, the pro-Union camp has launched a series of attacks on the SNPs referendum plan, notably Michael Moore’s, Danny Alexander’s and CBI Scotland’s last week. More worryingly for the pro-Union camp, no leader has yet emerged to champion the cause.
