Following TNS-BMRB’s and IPSOS Mori’s polls last week on independence and voting intentions in general the Sunday Express published the latest Angus Reid (AR) Poll over the weekend.
Holyrood Constituency: CON 13%, LAB 29%, LD 5%, SNP 49%
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Don’t quote me but I believe this is the first poll post-election.
Voting intentions are:
Holyrood Constituency: CON 13%, LAB 28%, LD 7%, SNP 49%
Ipsos MORI – 2nd September 2011
As expected, the poll indicates the SNP are enjoying a honeymoon period. In terms of the others, their figures are of no real surprises given Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives are in the process of conducting internal reviews (Labour) and electing new leaders, while the Lib Dems are still suffering from UK politics, a reduced base and having recently elected a new leader.
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YouGov’s final Scottish poll is published in today’s Scotsman (05/05/11).
Constituency Vote: CON 11%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, SNP 42%
Regional Vote: CON 13%, LAB 32%, LD 7%, SNP 35% & GREEN 6%
The SNP remain in the lead, but less convincingly than other recent polls have suggested.
These figures translate to the SNP gaining 54 seats, Labour 46, Conservatives 16, Lib Dems 7, the Greens 5 and one Independent.
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Last night (04/05/11) TNS-BRMB published their latest poll on behalf of STV.
Constituency Vote: CON 15%, LAB 27%, LD 10%, SNP 45%
Regional Vote: CON 16%, LAB 25%, LD 9%, SNP 38% & GREEN 8%
This works out to approximately 61 seats for the SNP (+14), 32(-14) for Labour, 18 (+1) for the Conservatives, 9 (-7) for the Lib Dems and 8 for the Greens (+6)
There are two Scottish polls in the Sunday papers (01/05/11), YouGov in the Scotland on Sunday and Progressive Scottish Opinion in the Mail on Sunday.
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These latest polls suggest that the Labour have managed to shave a couple of points off the SNPs lead. However, there could be numerous explanations for this including we’re getting closer to polling day, Labour’s change of focus and/or a simple variation in polling. An interesting aside is that the Green Party are in fourth place in the regional vote.
The YouGov topline figures with changes from 10 days ago are:
Constituency Vote: CON 12%(+2), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), SNP 42%(-3)
Regional Vote: CON 12%(nc), LAB 33%(+4), LDEM 6%(-1), SNP 35%(-4), Green 7%(nc)
If this were to be repeated on Thursday the SNP would win 55 seats, up 7, while Labour would win 48 seat, up 2. The Tories would be on 12, the Greens 8 and the Lib Dems 5.
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The Progressive poll’s topline figures with changes from a week ago are:
Constituency Vote: CON 10%(+1), LAB 35%(-1), LDEM 6%(nc), SNP 45%(-1)
Regional Vote: CON 8%(-2), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 5%(-4), SNP 41%(+3), Green 6%(+1)
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YouGov Poll commissioned by the Scotland on Sunday (24/04/11)
Constituency Vote: CON 10% (-1), LAB 32% (-5), LD 8% (nc), SNP 45% (+5)
Regional Vote: CON 12% (nc), LAB 29% (-4), LD 7% (nc), SNP 39% (+4), GREEN 7% (+1) and Others 6%
If this were to materialise then the SNP would win 61 seats, Labour 41, Conservatives 13, Lib Dems 6 and the Greens 8.
This poll continues to show Labour haemorrhaging support as Iain Gray and his party continue to struggle to convey a resonate message. Labour will be hoping that their campaign ‘re-launch’ yesterday will turn this around. The ‘re-launch’ saw Labour turn its guns on the SNP rather than the Tories at Westminster.
Importantly, if the above materialised, the SNP would potentially –with the help of the Greens – have enough ‘votes’ to push through the vaunted Independence Referendum.
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The SNPs apparent lead is supported by a Progressive Scottish Opinion Poll in the Sunday Mail (24/04/11). Topline figures below. It is worth noting that this poll suggests a much closer race in the regional vote.
Constituency Vote: CON 9%, LAB 36%, LD 6%, SNP 46%
Regional Vote: CON 10%, LAB 37%, LD 9%, SNP 38%, GREEN 5%
This translates into the SNP winning 56 seats, Labour 51, Conservatives 10, Lib Dems 9, the Greens 2 and 1 independent.
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The Herald is today (21/04/11) reporting the latest Ipsos-MORI polling figures conducted on behalf of the Scottish Sun/Times.
Constituency Vote: CON 10%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, SNP 45%
Regional Vote: CON 10%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, SNP 42%, Green 6%
In terms of seats this would give the SNP approximately 61, Labour 45, Conservatives 10, Lib Dems 9 and the Greens 4.
If these figures are accurate – and that is a big if – Alex Salmond would be returned as First Minister and be within touching distance of the magical 65 seats needed to form a majority Government. If the SNP were to go it alone again, Salmond would be in a much stronger position than four years ago.
On the flip side these figures will be worrying for Scottish Labour, as they continue to struggle to portray Iain Gray as a leader and the man to steer Scotland into the economic promise land.
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The tides appear to be shifting following the SNP’s launch of their manifesto last week. A YouGov poll for Scotland on Sunday shows that the SNP has seen a surge in support over the past two weeks and currently stand to win a six-seat majority over Labour.
Constituency vote: CON 11%(nc), LAB 37%(-2), LDEM 8%(+3), SNP 40%(nc)
Regional vote: CON 12%(nc), LAB 33%(-6), LDEM 7%(+2), SNP 35%(+3), Green 6%(nc)
YouGov poll figures for 25-28 March in brackets
When translated into seats, the poll would give the SNP 55 seats, Labour 49, the Conservatives 14, the Lib Dems 6 and the Greens 5. However, the poll doesn’t take into consideration the likelihood to vote. With the adjusted figures, the SNP and Labour remain neck-and-neck which suggests that Labour could still catch the SNP.
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The Sunday Times published the latest Scottish Election poll courtesy of online polling company Panelbase.
Holyrood Constituency: CON 13%, LAB 37%, LD 8%, SNP 37%
Holyrood Regional: CON 11%, LAB 32%, LD 7%, SNP 37%, GREEN 5%
This is the first time that the SNP have been ahead in the election campaign. The above figures very much reflect the trend of the most recent polls.
Another interesting finding reinforces the problem of Iain Gray’s public recognition. When 1,000 people were asked to identify the party leaders from a photograph the following occurred:
85% recognised Alex Salmond, 39% Annabel Goldie, 27% Iain Gray and only 19% Tavish Scott.
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Poll from yesterday courtesy of TNS-BRMB
Holyrood Constituency: CON 15%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, SNP 37%
Holyrood Regional: CON 14%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, SNP 35%
Normally polls with shifts of this size should be viewed with a degree of scepticism. However, in this case the poll brings TNS-BRMB in line with recent YouGov and ICM polls. There is now a definite trend indicating that Labour’s lead in the polls is narrowing.
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Two polls released over the weekend (19/20 March 2011).
First up, ICM have released a poll indicating Labour is maintaining a relatively modest lead.
Holyrood constituency: CON 12%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, SNP 35%
Holyrood regional: CON 13%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, SNP 34%
Secondly, YouGov have produced the following:
Holyrood constituency: CON 10%(-5), LAB 41%(nc), LDEM 6%(-2), SNP 38%(+6)
Holyrood regional: CON 11%(-4), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 6%(-1), SNP 32%(+6), GRN 5%
It is worth noting the large shift in support from the Conservatives to the SNP when compared with YouGov’s last poll.
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First up, there is a new Scottish poll (13-03-11) by Progressive Scotland Opinion. Topline figures are…
Holyrood constituency: CON 11%, LAB 43%, LDEM 5%, SNP 37%
Holyrood regional: CON 11%, LAB 44%, LDEM 4%, SNP 37%
