This Week in Scotland

As the UK Government celebrates it first 100 days in office commentators have been reflecting on what this has meant to Scotland. The main difference has been a thawing of relations between Holyrood and Westminster, with the Coalition pushing the ‘respect agenda’.  This is not to say that there have not been disagreements and accusations of ‘disrespect’ along the way – Clegg’s AV referendum date comes to mind.

Today marks the one year anniversary of the Scottish Governments decision to release Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi on compassionate grounds.  The Scottish Government is under continued pressure to release the medical evidence which ultimately led to Kenny MacAskill’s decision.  Mr MacAskill, this week also announced that he would be ‘happy’ to meet with US Senators if they travelled to Scotland to discuss the reasons behind the decision.

The Scottish Governments much criticised Curriculum for Excellence was rolled out across Scotland this week. The Curriculum aims to transform Scotland’s education system by providing a more coherent, flexible and enriched curriculum for 3 to 18 year olds.  The main difference will be that teachers will be given more freedom to teach fewer subjects in more depth, while asking pupils to actively seek answers for themselves.  In theory pupils will spend less time being assessed and more time learning. Critics claim that the proposals are being rushed through without proper assistance being given to teachers.

Following last week’s publication of the Independent Budget Review, there are growing calls, by local authorities and MSPs alike, to end the current freeze on Council tax.  With Scotland preparing to implement a series of wide ranging cuts, the policy is increasingly been seen as a luxury the country can no longer afford.  While the SNP Government have confirmed their aspiration to continue this policy for a fourth year, they have so far stopped short of guaranteeing such a move.

Alex Salmond has been in Norway this week to discuss how the countries can work together in areas of common interest.  Announcements have come on joint approaches towards renewable energy and fishing quotas.    The First Minister also used his trip to demand the establishment of a Norwegian-style oil fund, highlighting the case for devolving control of North Sea taxation and production to the Scottish Parliament, which would potentially deliver billions of pounds of benefits to Scotland.

100 Days of the Coalition: A Scottish Perspective

This week the UK Coalition Government celebrated 100 days in power.  Many commentators questioned whether a coalition between two parties sharing conflicting ideologies would even make it this far. A recent YouGov poll suggested that despite a much publicised ‘love-in’ and continuous complementary exchanges between senior members of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats (though not all – Simon Hughes MP), 47% of those polled do not expect the coalition to survive past 2 years (max 630 days to go then!).

If you read the national newspapers, and depending on your political ideology, the Coalition has either been a radical modernising force or a chameleon PR risk which the country cannot afford to entertain.  Either way, the first 100 days has seen radical reforms to the English education system (free schools) and an emergency Budget that aims to cut the deficit quicker, deeper and apparently fairer than those outlined by the previous Labour administration.  The NHS is set for major overhaul with the purse strings given to local GPs, reviews to spending and defence are underway, ID cards have been abolished and there are plans to elect police commissioners; while the awareness and understanding of the Big Society is increasing – though some scepticism remains about how it will work in practice. But what has the Coalition meant for Scotland?

The most obvious and pleasant outcome of the Coalition is the thawing of relations between Westminster and Holyrood.  Under Labour, relationships soured considerably after the SNP came to power in 2007. Cameron constantly banged on about resetting relations and introducing a ‘respect agenda’ throughout the General Election campaign.  George Osborne agreed to the Scottish Government’s request to defer the cuts agenda in Scotland for a year, while the Scottish Government is to actively participate in European talks when relevant (fisheries), a consent previous UK Governments failed to entertain. All sounds good. Cameron visited Holyrood within the first few days of his premiership and met the First Minister Alex Salmond. It was wildly reported how surprised and taken aback the Scottish Government were with Cameron’s stance on a number of previously thorny issues.  There remains talk of the Fossil Fuel Levy returning to Scotland, something Labour had continually refused despite umpteen requests.   Respect was the name of the game.

Problems emerged though when Nick Clegg announced his radical road plan for political reform.  He stated the AV referendum would be held on the same day as the Scottish Elections.  Mr Clegg apparently did not consult the Scottish Government.  I know the respect agenda was/is a Conservative policy, but Clegg’s distinct lack of respect and subsequent refusal to deal has left many with a sour taste in their mouth.

On Calman there remains a commitment to implement the proposals sooner rather than later.  Many feared that a Conservative Government would kick the issue into the long grass.  The Liberal democrats and SNP have ensured that it has not.  The Scottish Government has demanded Calman-max after the Chancellor’s emergency budget left many of Calman’s tax proposals arguably obsolete. The Secretary of State for Scotland, Michael Moore, has quietly gone about his job, sticking to a consistent policy line of Calman will be implemented nothing more, nothing less.

On Megrahi, the Coalition and the Prime Minister in particular, have seen relations become somewhat strained.  It was no secret that Cameron opposed the decision, however he has stopped short of calling for a full blown inquiry into the matter. This was a difficult tight rope to balance when considering he had to keep the Americans onside but at the same time not renege on his promises in relation to the respect agenda.

So with 100 days gone, the ceiling hasn’t fallen in.  Thatcher as yet has not returned to haunt the Scots, apart from the brief flurry about the coalition abolishing free school milk – which was short lived. While there has and will continue to be disagreements on various issues, most notably the cuts agenda, the Coalition and the Scottish Government have made considerable strides towards thawing relations. Ultimately, a big improvement on what came before it.

The Herald: Opinion Poll

Now I realise that polls are often unreliable at predicting actual results, but the latest opinion poll published in today’s Herald provides some interesting reading.  The TNS-BMRB poll of 1,000 people, taken between July and August, provides political parties and commentators a snapshot of where the respective parties are currently perceived to be with just over 9 months till the Scottish Parliamentary Elections. 

Holyrood Constituency

Lab – 46% (+1)
SNP – 32% (+3)
LD – 11% (nc)
Con – 10% (-3)

Holyrood region

Lab – 42% (+1)
SNP – 30% (+2)
LD – 12% (nc)
Con – 11% (-1)

No information provided for the Green Party.

The figures suggest that Labour is on course to ‘win’ the Scottish Elections. However, as David Cameron’s Conservatives demonstrated, being 10 point plus ahead in the polls 9 months out means nothing.  Labour’s UK General Election success was built on the foundations of an anti-Tory vote.  If they are to repeat this success they will have to develop a distinct message above and beyond the anti-Tory message and rely on Scots continuing to associate themselves with a probable Miliband as UK Party Leader. The gap between Labour and the SNP will no doubt narrow. The question is will Labour be able to hold onto enough support to obtain a majority?

After a poor UK General Election the SNP will be heartened that their support has increased, though it is a short of the 35% mark polled in January.  With 9 months to go Alex Salmond and Co will be quietly confident that they can narrow Labour’s lead and even maintain power.

With the Lib Dem’s UK support in an apparent nose dive it is perhaps surprising to read that the Party’s support in Scotland has remained level.  It appears, through luck more than anything else, that Tavish Scott and Co have managed to so far remain untarnished from Nick Clegg’s decision to form a UK Coalition Government. The main challenge for the Scottish Lib Dems will be to maintain this support when the Westminster imposed cuts begin to bite. This will be no easy task, especially since the Prime Minister has been clever to position Danny Alexander and other leading Lib Dems as the public face of the impending cuts.

While David Cameron maybe enjoying a honeymoon period at Westminster, the Scottish Conservatives nightmare continues.  Following a dismal UK General Election, returning only 1 MP, and the respect agenda wobbling, these figures will only serve to increase the pressure on Annabel Goldie and her counterparts.  While it is probable that there are enough Tories in Scotland to prevent the Party from entering the realms of single digits, the polls suggests that they have the most work to do in persuading Scots that they offer a viable alternative. Deputy Party Leader Murdo Fraser has been quick to highlight that TNS have a history of playing down the level of Conservative support in Scotland.  The Conservatives will be hoping that TNS are once again wide of the mark.

Lib Dems inconsistent as potential solution to the polling clusters is proposed.

Nick Clegg has suggested that holding a referendum on an Alternative Voting System on the same day as the Scottish Parliament Elections next summer, and the 2015 General Election on the same date as the 2015 Scottish Parliament elections,  would save £17 million and is as such a wise economic move.  

However, due to pressure from Scottish ministers, the Liberal Democrat Scottish Secretary Michael Moore MP has been forced to consider giving the Scottish Parliament the power to vary its election date by six months in the forthcoming Scotland Bill. This proposal seems adhoc and inconsistent. If saving money is the aim of clustering the elections then why spread them out again at the inconvenience of Britain’s devolved institutions? Moore’s proposal clearly undermines Clegg’s sound reasoning that grouping the elections could be an economically savvy move.

On a more basic level the proposed solution to the poll problem demonstrates an arrogant assumption that Holyrood should bend to Westminster’s every whim and, in this case, mistake. If the coalition government genuinely respected the devolved governments’  concerns over the election dates, then they would have moved the UK poll dates and not bullied the devolved institutions into changing theirs. It seems patent that David Cameron will need to do more than the proposed ‘top-level talks’ if he is to restore faith in the coalition government’s ‘Respect Agenda’. A meeting between the Scottish Secretary and the First Minister must surely be on the cards? 

By Sophie

A Clash of Dates

So a storm is brewing.  On Monday the Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg, announced proposals which could, if passed, radically alter how UK MPs are elected.  Under these proposals the UK electorate would be encouraged to vote on 5 May 2011 on whether to replace the first past the post electoral system with that of the alternative voting (AV) system.

The problem with this is that the 5 May 2011 is also the date for the Scottish and Welsh devolved and English & Welsh Local Government elections.  The SNP has been quick to brand this announcement as the UK Government holding the Scottish Parliament in contempt and of showing massive disrespect.  The SNP and Labour claim that holding a referendum on potentially transformational UK policy would undermine the devolved elections and confuse the electorate.  Remember the official report following the chaotic scenes in 2007 when the Scottish Parliament Elections were held on the same day as Local Government elections? It recommended that multiple elections should not be held on the same date in future after 140,000 ballots were deemed void following mass voter confusion.

Mr. Clegg argues that while he has taken the above complaints into consideration and will read with interest the devolved Governments letters of protest; that the electorate don’t want to have to vote on multiple referendums on multiple occasions in the same year.  Think of the school closures and the disruption it would inevitably cause, let alone the estimated £17million cost of holding the AV referendum on a different date. He goes onto argue that it is perfectly acceptable to expect that people eligible to vote are capable of handling more than one ballot paper using different electoral systems. 

Expect the devolved Governments protests to be noted but ultimately fall on deaf ears. Following a positive start to the  new UK Government’s much publicised ‘Respect Agenda’, which heralded positive meetings and the release of funds to Scotland from the Fossil Fuel Levy, this latest announcement by the Coalition seems to somewhat diverge from this agenda.

The Queen’s Speech: Same Old Brand New Politics

And so at last the era of ‘new politics’ has formally arrived with the State Opening of Parliament. The Queen’s Speech has just been delivered setting out the agenda for the new coalition Government, with a total of 23 Bills (and one draft Bill) to be brought forward over the parliamentary session. The newest innovation had come over the weekend however, with a late draft of the Queen’s Speech being leaked to Sunday newspapers rendering today little more than a burdensome formality. It used to be that the Queen’s Speech was an eagerly anticipated affair – politically as well as aesthetically – but following the last administration’s publication of ‘draft legislative programmes’ during the summer, the coalition has now gone one better and simply leaked the speech itself. Perhaps as part of the cuts to address the deficit the coalition intends to make the Queen redundant…

One certainly got the impression that Her Majesty was distinctly underwhelmed, this being her 56^th State Opening of Parliament, and possibly experiencing a sentiment akin to “seen it, done it, bought the t-shirt (or rather ermine robe)”. At a mere eight minutes long, it seemed she was desperate to get back to the Palace and watch Loose Women.

In terms of the Bills themselves, the programme is a logical conclusion to the various negotiations between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Although the coalition ‘Programme for Government’ seemed to represent a number of concessions on the part of Cameron, the Bills illustrate the dominance of the Conservatives in the coalition. George Osborne, the Chancellor, leads on no fewer than six Bills while Vince Cable, the Business Secretary, is handed just the awkward Postal Services Bill.

The 23 Bill total somewhat flatters the extent of the coalition’s ambition as much of the legislation is aimed at repealing Labour legislation, for example the Identity Documents Bill (repealing ID cards); the grandiose-sounding Freedom (Great Repeal) Bill which scales back and regulates the use of CCTV and the DNA database; and the Public Bodies (Reform) Bill which sets the stage for the “bonfire of the quangos”.

That said, the coalition is proposing to overhaul the financial regulatory system on a hitherto unseen scale. Legislation to create the long-trailed Office for Budget Responsibility will be brought forward to bring a measure of credibility to the Treasury’s economic growth forecasts, although it raises important questions relating to the accountability of an unelected three-person panel potentially holding the Chancellor’s fiscal policy to ransom.

In addition, the Financial Services Regulatory Bill controversially aims to move macro-prudential regulation away from the Financial Services Authority (FSA), which has become something of a punch bag for the Conservative Party, to the Bank of England. Even more contentious are the proposals to also give the Old Lady “oversight” of micro-prudential regulation which paints a decidedly uncertain future for the FSA.

Political reform forms the other main strand of the legislative programme, with a power of recall of MPs proposed and a reduced House of Commons (fewer MPs with larger constituencies). Political and electoral reform has long been a goal of the Liberal Democrats and was a major point for them during the coalition negotiations. The Parliamentary Reform Bill commits the coalition to a referendum on the Alternative Vote (AV) system rather the than Liberal Democrats favoured proportional representation system and will surely prove problematic for the coalition as each partner will be campaigning against the other.

So far the coalition has been at pains to show a degree of unity, with Cameron and Clegg appearing particularly at ease with each other. With the return of Parliament however, and the debating of legislation, cracks are bound to be forthcoming over the coming months. How the coalition copes with internal squabbles will determine the fate of its first legislative programme.

The full list of Bills is as follows:

• Academies Bill
• Airports Economic Regulation Bill
• Armed Forces Bill
• Decentralisation and Localism Bill
• Education and Children’s Bill
• Energy Security and Green Economy Bill
• Equitable Life Payments Scheme Bill
• European Communities (Amendment) Referendum Lock Bill
• Financial Services Regulation Bill
• Freedom (Great Repeal) Bill
• Health Bill
• Identity Documents Bill
• Local Government Bill
• National Insurance Contributions Bill
• Office for Budget Responsibility Bill
• Parliamentary Reform Bill
• Pensions and Savings Bill
• Police Reform and Social Responsibility Bill
• Postal Services Bill
• Public Bodies (Reform) Bill
• Scotland Bill
• Terrorist Asset Freezing Bill
• Welfare Reform Bill
• Parliamentary Privilege (Draft Bill)

By Tanya

This week in Scotland

PM visits FM:

With the UK Government installed, the new Prime Minister David Cameron, is today set to fulfill a long standing campaign pledge to visit Scotland within a week of taking office.  Mr. Cameron’s visit is part of his much publicised ‘respect agenda’ aimed at establishing a better working relationship between Westminster and the UK’s devolved governments.  Simply put, the ‘agenda’ is that Mr. Cameron will respect devolution, including the Scottish Budget, in return for the First Minister showing respect for reserved matters.  Following the SNPs rhetoric since the announcement of the UK’s coalition government, the Prime Minister maybe forced to take an early defensive stance.  The First Minister is likely to demand £350million in accelerated capital expenditure, £180million fossil fuel levy, increased borrowing powers for the Scottish Parliament and the Barnett consequentials as a result of the London Olympics.  Though both sides are keen to stress that they are entering these meetings with a degree of good will, it is fair to say that today will probably set the precedent for future relations between the two men and two governments. The new Secretary for State for Scotland, Danny Alexander will also be attendance.

Scottish unemployment figures:

In response to the latest Scottish unemployment figures, Jim Mather, Minister for Enterprise, Energy & Tourism has once again called for accelerated capital expenditure in order to ensure continued Scottish economic recovery.  The Scottish Government has continually called for a further economic stimulus package for Scotland highlighting the fact that alongside Argentina the UK is the only G20 nation to withdraw its stimulus package in 2010.  The figures showed that while the level of jobseeker allowance claimants had fallen in April, the overall level of unemployment had increased by 0.5% to 8.1%. 

Holyrood Business:

The Committee investigating the proposed new Forth road bridge has this week recommended that the overarching principals behind the proposals be passed at the upcoming parliamentary debate.  MSPs have also overwhelmingly voted in favour of the principals behind the Crofting Reform Bill.  The Bill seeks to address absenteeism and neglect of croft land.

FMQs:

FMQs this week was dominated by two exchanges.  Firstly, Iain Gray attacked the SNP for overseeing cuts to the NHS amounting to 1,200 jobs – more than half of which are nurses and midwifes.  Salmond’s response was to call for unity in defending Scotland against the upcoming £600 million in UK Government imposed cuts to the Scottish budget. Buoyed on no doubt from not having to defend a UK Labour administration, Mr Gray was more combative and relaxed in comparison – scoring a rare hit by reminding the FM that the NHS cuts were not Tory, Labour or Lib Dem cuts but SNP cuts.  

The second exchange was with the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Annabel Goldie over the need for the First Minister to abandon the politics of ‘grin and whinge’ in favour of a more collaborative approach. On being reminded of comparing Nick Clegg to a horse fly, she deflected the attack stating that it was nothing that a little Tory anti-histamine could not sort out.

After resigning as Prime Minister, Gordon Brown returned to his constituency to announce that he intends to remain as a backbench MP – for the time being.

UK General Election: A Rainbow Coalition

What a difference a day makes.  This time yesterday we were watching the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats inch ever closer to agreeing some form of deal.  This morning we have the Lib Dem’s in formal negotiations with the Labour Party, following Gordon Brown’s dramatic statement last night indicating that he is to resign in the autumn.  What of the Tories?  They have issued a ‘take it or leave it deal’ to the Lib Dem’s, including a move towards a referendum on AV. 

With the media so focused upon the outcome of a possible Con-Lib Lib-Lab deal it has almost forgot that just over 3.5million people voted against the parties in question. So what about the SNP?

The SNP has raised the possibility of a ‘rainbow alliance’.  Simply put the ‘alliance’ would be a bunching of parties aimed at preventing the Tories from establishing any form of workable government. This would involve Labour, Lib Dem’s, SNP, Plaid, MPs from Northern Ireland and the sole Green MP.  One can easily argue that any such alliance hardly has the making of the ‘strong and stable’ government; Nick Clegg is keen to establish.

The SNPs position is that they do not wish to form any formal coalition with the ‘London parties’, but would be open to discuss ad hoc support on particular legislation in return for concessions.  What are these concessions you might ask? They would be centred upon protecting the Scottish economy, jobs and further delaying the expected cuts to its budget. 

The problem for the SNP is to convince the Lib Dem’s and Labour that they could be trusted to provide the stable support required for the ‘rainbow alliance’ to work.  In the SNPs favour is that any Lib-Lab deal would still be mathematically short of an overall majority and that they believe they could easily argue that any Tory Government lacked a legitimate Scottish mandate having only returned one Scottish MP.  Senior Scottish Lib Dem’s have already voiced concerns about entering into an alliance with the Tories, suggesting the preferred option for many Lib Dem supporters would be a Lib-Lab deal.  Whether any deal would extend to include the SNP on anything other than an ad hoc basis remains to be seen.

Labour’s Douglas Alexander MP and the Lib Dem’s Simon Hughes MP have both publically stated that they cannot envisage circumstances in which their parties would enter any formal agreement with the SNP.  On top of this is the fact that Labour in Scotland loathe the SNP. Additionally senior Labour politicians past and present appear to be lining up to reject any possible deal stating a belief that any deal would hurt the party politically in the eyes of the public. 

While negotiations continue in London the lingering prospect of making any coalition or minority government dance to a Scottish jig remains a distinct, if remote possibility.

UK General Election: Power Negotiations

“A deliciously painful torture mechanism” – Paddy Ashdown

So after three days of intense negotiation between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats it appears that an agreement of some kind is inching ever closer.  It is impossible to say when a deal will emerge but any deal that does emerge will be viewed by many, both domestically and internationally, with long term scepticism. The problem for the UK parties is that they are often ideologically polls apart.

Credit must go to Nick Clegg for sticking to his promise to allow the party with the biggest mandate an opportunity to form a government when his natural and possibly first instinct may have been to talk to Labour about a potential deal. Any deal with the Conservatives is likely to be deeply unpopular with Lib Dem activist particularly in the South West of England. Though the above quote was made in reference to the Lib Dem position, it can easily and aptly be used to examine the Conservatives position.

While the electorate gave them the biggest mandate, resoundingly rejecting those proposed by Labour and the Liberal Democrats, they did not support them enough to give the Tories an overall majority.  The Tories now find themselves negotiating with a party, which more often than not it has ridiculed as the ‘Third party’.

During the election the Lib Dem’s and Tories were both keen to stress their ideological differences as they battled for the electorates favour.  They highlighted differences in opinion surrounding Europe, Trident, immigration, taxes and ring-fenced budgets. 

The most notable difference is electoral reform in the form of proportional representation.  Many Lib Dems supports will not comprehend any deal without a firm commitment to PR.  David Cameron’s offer of a cross party commission on the issue falls far from anything that could be categorised as a serious commitment.   Mr. Cameron’s reluctance to offer anything more substantial is due to his, and more importantly his party’s, long standing hostility towards PR. 

Despite these differences the two parties do have a lot in common, which in the importance of working in the ‘national interest’, the Conservatives are now keen to emphasise.  There is agreement over the need to scrap ID cards, introduce a ‘pupil premium’, cut tax credits to the wealthy, limit public sector pay and create a low carbon green economy.  The parties also agree to a limited degree on the basis of economic recovery and electoral reform.

The issue for Nick Clegg and David Cameron is negotiating an agreement that they can sell to their parties without appearing to sell out their parties ideologies.  Thus on Friday Mr. Cameron stressed that Europe and Defence was non-negotiable, while senior Lib Dem’s have continually spoken of no-deal-without-PR. 

The end game though remains the same.  The Tories could form a minority government.  The Lib Dem’s have a choice.  Support the Tories, or create a so-called ‘losers-coalition’ with Labour.  It is arguably in the Lib Dem’s best interest to negotiate an arms length deal with the Tories as if talks collapse acrimoniously it will undermine the very think they sought to promote.  Collaborative politics.

General Election in Scotland

In a night of incredible political results across the United Kingdom, with Labour facing significant losses across the country, Scottish Labour had an incredible evening North of the border. The party suffered no losses and managed to take back its high profile by election losses in both Glasgow East and Dunfermline and West Fife.

The sheer robustness of the Labour result translated into very disappointing results for the other parties. Labour were heavily tipped to lose in both Edinburgh South and Edinburgh North and Leith and the Scottish Liberal Democrats were the odds on favourites to pick up these seats. Instead, Mark Lazarowicz managed to hold on to his seat in North and Leith and Edinburgh Councillor, Ian Murray replaced Nigel Griffiths in Edinburgh South. Chatter had begun in the last couple of days that the Lib Dems might be springing a shock in Glasgow North and Aberdeen South, but neither shock materialised.

The Scottish National Party would have considered this an underwhelming evening under normal circumstances, but Alex Salmond’s twenty seat target means the scrutiny placed on this result will be especially intense. The SNP failed to take either of its two target seats in either Ochil and South Perthshire where Labour’s Gordon Banks held off the challenge of Annabelle Ewing and Jim McGovern held on in Dundee West. Stewart Hosie provided the most encouraging result of the evening for the nationalists as he bucked the national trend and increased his majority in Dundee East.

Finally, the Scottish Conservatives began the evening with one MP in Scotland and as dawn broke, still had one MP in Scotland. David Mundell held his seat in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale against a strong challenge from Labour’s Claudia Beamish. However, they failed to make anymore gains in either Angus or Perth and North Perthshire where the SNP held on, or in Dumfries and Galloway where Labour’s Russell Brown was returned to Parliament. Commentators are already discussing the implications of such little Conservative representation in Scotland, if indeed, the Conservatives form the next UK Government.

Scotland really has proved to be fortress Labour in this election and will contribute over 15% to the next parliamentary party in Westminster. As opposed to Wales, where other parties have made gains and Labour have wobbled slightly, Scottish Labour have held firm. It is slightly premature to draw overwhelming conclusions about what this means for the 2011 Holyrood elections. Turnout and voting patterns are markedly different for the two sets of elections. Still, the Scottish National Party will have to work very hard to cut off the momentum Scottish Labour will carry as the campaign begins.  

Overall, with Argyll & Bute still to declare, here are the results as they stand:

Scottish Labour –  41 (no change from 2005)

Lib Dems – 10 (no change, hopes to hold Argyll & Bute)

Scottish National Party- 6 (no change from 2005)

Conservatives - 1 (no change from 2005)

The words ‘no change’ underline the extraordinary nature of the results in Scotland. On first viewing it suggests that Scottish voters wanted to keep David Cameron out of Number ten at all costs and these coalesced around Scottish Labour. Despite the losses nationally election strategists for Scottish Labour will be overjoyed at this result. For the other parties there will be a sense of dejection and shock and slight alarm with the Holyrood elections now less than a year away. Indeed, sometimes in politics, it seems that no change at all can seem like all the change in the world.

By Kenny