Today – following 7 weeks of hard electioneering – voting commenced on the Glasgow North East by-election. This hard fought race has entered its last lap, with the decision now in the hands of the electorate. Despite the SNP’s best efforts to dislodge Labour from the seat, leading commentators have projected a Labour hold. It was always going to be difficult for the SNP to win a seat that has been in the hands of Labour for the past 74 years. However, in truth, their campaign failed to build the momentum of the 2007 Scottish Parliamentary Elections or the Glasgow East by-election of July 2008.
Given the circumstances surrounding the resignation of Michael Martin from the House of Commons it was anticipated that this by-election would be another prize fight between the SNP and Labour. In contrast, this election was a slow burn with very few high points. That said, oppostion parties were undountedly inhibited by the delay in calling the election.
Whether this projected victory for Scottish Labour signifies the steadying of their ship or the end of the SNP’s honeymoon once and for all – if not both – remains to be seen. There is however another hypothesis – the candidates had little of real relevance to discuss with constituents to sway their opinion. In reality, the vast majority of issues affecting the constituents of Glasgow North East are handled by either Glasgow City Council or the Scottish Parliament e.g. health, housing, education, community safety, economic development etc. Therefore when you boil it down to the reserved issues that Scottish MP’s vote on, which have a direct impact on the citizens of Glasgow North East, there is not a whole lot to talk about.
Granted, reserved matters such as benefits and social security will undoubtedly be of interest to constituents in Glasgow North East, due to the level of social depravation in the area. However, the reality is a Scottish MP’s remit following devolution has been considerably reduced. Therefore, with limited scope of issues to discuss it can be incredibly difficult for candidates to get their campaigns in motion – especially when one considers the lag between when the seat became vacant and the election announced… not to mention campainging in winter.
Many commemtators have projected a Labour victory, and with an expected low turnout this seems a safe bet. However, given the SNP took neighbouring Glasgow East just over 15 months ago with a massive swing, the result may be closer than expected.
